852  
ACUS01 KWNS 280450  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 280449  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1049 PM CST MON NOV 27 2017  
 
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND OZARKS TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH MODEST TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE  
(E.G., PW VALUES AROUND 1-1.2 IN.) TO FOSTER WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY  
OVERNIGHT FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS EASTWARD TO THE OZARKS.  
AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE, SHOWERS SHOULD FORM WITHIN A WARM-ADVECTION  
REGIME, AND A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL  
LIGHTNING.  
 
WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN  
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL  
NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, FAVORABLY DEEP BUOYANCY PROFILES WITHIN  
A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST REGIME SHOULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY CONFINED TO  
EASTERN COASTAL AREAS.  
 
..PICCA/COOK.. 11/28/2017  
 

 
 
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