926  
ACUS02 KWNS 021731  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 021730  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1130 AM CST SAT DEC 02 2017  
 
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z  
   
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES  
SUNDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A CHANGE IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW  
PATTERN BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, BECOMING MOST NOTICEABLE BY THE  
LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. THIS  
WILL OCCUR AS A PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF  
THE U.S. AND PHASES WITH A TROUGH DIGGING AND ALSO AMPLIFYING AS IT  
TRACKS FROM WESTERN INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. MEANWHILE, THE  
COMPACT CLOSED LOW, CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION  
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, SHOULD UNDERGO FURTHER WEAKENING FROM D1  
INTO D2 AS IT TRACKS EAST ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND  
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  
   
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TX COASTAL PLAIN
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING TEXAS MAY INTERACT WITH SURFACE-BASED  
BUOYANCY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SEVERAL STABLE  
LAYERS ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST UPDRAFTS TOO WEAK FOR LIGHTNING  
GENERATION.  
   
..EASTERN IA
 
 
A WEAK MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION ATTENDANT TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CLOSED  
LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
ACROSS IA TO WI SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED AS MID- TO  
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND  
STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AMPLIFYING WESTERN U.S. TROUGH.  
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, INCLUDING SOME WITH THE SOUTHWEST PERTURBATION,  
WILL SUPPORT MIDLEVEL MOISTENING AND COOLING 500-MB TEMPERATURES,  
RESULTING IN WEAK BUOYANCY LOCATED ABOVE AN INVERSION BASED AROUND  
700-750 MB PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WHILE A LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT, MAINLY DURING THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD, OVERALL DATA SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN  
10 PERCENT.  
 
..PETERS.. 12/02/2017  
 

 
 
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