280  
ACUS01 KWNS 021957  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 021956  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0156 PM CST SAT DEC 02 2017  
 
VALID 022000Z - 031200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE NEEDED.  
 
..PETERS.. 12/02/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1023 AM CST SAT DEC 02 2017/  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OR/NORTHERN CA  
BY EARLY SUNDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY,  
AS EVIDENCED BY POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY, WILL  
OVERSPREAD THE COAST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED  
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE  
CAROLINAS ALONG A STALLED FRONT, AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A WEAK  
UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WILL  
RETURN NORTHWESTWARD AS A WARM FRONT TO THE TX COAST LATER TODAY  
INTO TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL BE  
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. HOWEVER, ANY  
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT,  
AND ANY INFLUENCE IN TX OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW OVER  
NORTHERN BAJA) WILL BE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  
 

 
 
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