813  
ACUS01 KWNS 031302  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 031300  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0700 AM CST SUN DEC 03 2017  
 
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS  
TODAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.  
   
..TEXAS
 
 
AN INCREASINGLY OPEN/PROGRESSIVE SOUTHERN-STREAM IMPULSE OVER  
NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD TODAY AND REACH PARTS OF THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, GRADUAL  
MOISTENING ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
DEEP CONVECTION. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS  
CHRISTI TX SHOW SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
PRESUMING SOME EROSION OF OBSERVED MID-LEVEL CAPPING AS THE UPSTREAM  
IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. ANY SUCH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL  
WILL WANE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL  
IMPULSE.  
   
..UPPER MIDWEST
 
 
AN EASTWARD-SHIFTING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES TO HIGH  
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL AID A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE  
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THIS REGION, PROFILES WILL  
MOISTEN AMIDST RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE,  
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE WARM  
ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  
 
..GUYER/DIAL.. 12/03/2017  
 

 
 
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