735  
ACUS01 KWNS 040527  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 040525  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1125 PM CST SUN DEC 03 2017  
 
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK  
TO WEST-CENTRAL IL...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS FROM PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY MONDAY EVENING.  
   
..EASTERN OK TO WEST-CENTRAL IL
 
 
STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY REGION AS 90KT+ 500MB JET TRANSLATES ACROSS  
NORTHERN KS INTO IA BY 05/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEPENING  
OF SURFACE LOW AS IT TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST IA TO WESTERN LAKE  
SUPERIOR. MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LLJ AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTS WEAK BUOYANCY WILL EVOLVE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM  
EASTERN OK INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL IA. WHILE ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF  
MUCAPE WILL BE NOTED, STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS  
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT BY MID  
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING SUGGEST  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE BEFORE  
ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL MO/WESTERN AR. ACTIVITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED  
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BETWEEN 21Z-03Z WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO  
WEAKEN FARTHER EAST DUE TO LIMITED BUOYANCY AND COOLING BOUNDARY  
LAYER. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL  
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS EASTERN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT STEEPER.  
 
..DARROW/GLEASON.. 12/04/2017  
 

 
 
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