416  
ACUS01 KWNS 050046  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 050044  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0644 PM CST MON DEC 04 2017  
 
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OK  
AND AR NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND FARTHER SOUTH INTO  
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
   
..MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN OK
 
 
A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS EVENING OVER IA WILL MOVE INTO THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK. WINDS VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WITH  
HEIGHT WILL CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION WHERE  
BUOYANCY IS MAINTAINED/MAXIMIZED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT  
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN  
OK THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY FACTOR STUNTING AN OTHERWISE MORE  
ORGANIZED AND GREATER-COVERAGE SEVERE RISK IS WEAK BUOYANCY.  
NONETHELESS, A NARROWING PLUME OF MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL  
GRADUALLY BECOME PINCHED OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH  
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF REMAINING APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY PROGRESSING  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY RICHER MOISTURE  
OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE AR-OK-TX VICINITY MAY YIELD AN  
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING A LINGERING THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONGER  
STORM THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS  
THE MS RIVER LATE. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY  
CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  
 
..SMITH.. 12/05/2017  
 

 
 
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