015  
ACUS11 KWNS 050722  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 050722  
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-050845-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1783  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0122 AM CST TUE DEC 05 2017  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN TEXAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN  
LOUISIANA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 050722Z - 050845Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  
HOWEVER, THE THREAT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY TRANSIENT/CONFINED,  
PRECLUDING WATCH ISSUANCE.  
 
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR DATA ILLUSTRATE A CLUSTER OF CONVECTIVE  
CELLS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA EARLY THIS MORNING,  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.  
DEVELOPING WITHIN A MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM-ADVECTION/CONFLUENT  
REGIME, THESE CELLS ARE LIKELY BEING AIDED BY A WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM  
IMPULSE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. KPOE VWP DATA  
DEPICT SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 2 KM, WITH 0-1KM  
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150 M2/S2. SEVERAL OF THESE CELLS  
HAVE OCCASIONALLY EXHIBITED WEAK ROTATION, AND THIS TREND MAY  
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THEREFORE, DESPITE WEAK BUOYANCY  
(EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF CG LIGHTNING), A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY  
LAYER MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. HOWEVER, AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
CONTINUES TO VEER THIS MORNING, THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH  
DECREASING SHEAR.  
 
..PICCA/GUYER.. 12/05/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...  
 
LAT...LON 31039460 32039326 32109250 32019193 31709153 31339148  
31169164 30769311 30589447 31039460  
 
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