539  
ACUS01 KWNS 051300  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 051258  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0658 AM CST TUE DEC 05 2017  
 
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DEEP  
SOUTH...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A COUPLE OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR TODAY ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH.  
   
..PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL
 
 
THE REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY WEAK/GLANCING HEIGHT FALLS ON THE  
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN ONTARIO-CENTERED  
DEEP TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE  
TO ACCOMPANY A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT TODAY, WITH SUCH  
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AL, THE NORTHERN HALF OF MS,  
AND NORTH-CENTRAL LA THIS MORNING AS OF 13Z. GIVEN THAT FORCING FOR  
ASCENT WILL LARGELY LAG THE FRONT, THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL  
OCCUR ALONG AND MORE SO BEHIND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY  
DEEPER PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION (INCLUDING SOME LIGHTNING) HAS BEEN  
NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL LA EARLY THIS MORNING.  
 
THIS SAME REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE SHOULD DEVELOP  
EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/AL, WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF MODEST CLOUD BREAKS COINCIDENT WITH ADDITIONAL  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING (MID TO SOME UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS) AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT. THIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO MODESTLY INCREASE AND  
INTENSIFY INTO THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IF  
SO, ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME  
WEAK/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. WHILE OVERLY ORGANIZED OR  
CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT SEEM LIKELY, A LOW-END  
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO MAY EXIST  
(PERHAPS WITH AN ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING).  
 
..GUYER/PICCA.. 12/05/2017  
 

 
 
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