129  
ACUS48 KWNS 060848  
SWOD48  
SPC AC 060847  
 
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0247 AM CST WED DEC 06 2017  
 
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY THROUGH THE NORTHEAST  
DURING THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO AN OVERALL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE  
UPPER PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE RESULTING LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL  
LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  
DROP THROUGH THE PLAINS ON D6/MONDAY. SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITHIN  
THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH BUT, REGARDLESS OF THESE DIFFERENCES, MODEL CONSENSUS  
SUGGESTS A RETURN TO THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE,  
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH PATTERN BY EARLY D7/TUESDAY.  
 
THIS OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR THE PERSISTENCE OF A DRY,  
COOL, AND STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CONUS, LIMITING THE  
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
..MOSIER.. 12/06/2017  
 
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