576  
ACUS02 KWNS 061650  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 061649  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1049 AM CST WED DEC 06 2017  
 
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z  
   
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.  
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGLY CONFLUENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH  
AMERICA, WITH SHARP POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING  
EXTENDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN  
MEXICAN PLATEAU, DOWNSTREAM OF PROMINENT RIDGING ALONG THE U.S.  
PACIFIC COAST NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. THIS REGIME APPEARS  
LIKELY TO MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL  
BUT PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR  
DEEP CONVECTION.  
 
A LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY  
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES, OFF THE SOUTH  
ATLANTIC COAST, ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF  
MEXICO. MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD BECOME  
CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY, BOTH SOUTH  
OF THE FRONT (ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA  
PENINSULA), AND PERHAPS WITHIN A CORRIDOR ABOVE/TO THE COOL SIDE OF  
THE SURFACE FRONT (ROUGHLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT  
GULF COASTAL AREAS INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN). THE  
EXTENT TO WHICH THIS BECOMES CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION CAPABLE OF  
PRODUCING LIGHTNING REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, IN EITHER CASE,  
PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS STILL APPEAR LOW, AND GENERALLY LESS  
THAN THE MINIMUM 10 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM  
AREA.  
 
..KERR.. 12/06/2017  
 

 
 
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