006  
ACUS02 KWNS 070616  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 070615  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1215 AM CST THU DEC 07 2017  
 
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL  
FL...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS  
OF FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY  
BE SEVERE.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD  
WITH A LARGE, POSITIVELY TITLED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND WESTERN CONUS RIDGING CENTERED OVER  
CENTRAL CA EXPANDING MODESTLY EASTWARD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING  
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY REACH THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE COUPLED  
WITH THE OVERALL EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL  
RESULT IN A SOUTHWARD SURGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BEEN  
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FL. BUOYANCY AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL  
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS, SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE, ACROSS THE REGION  
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
   
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FL
 
 
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY AS THE SLOPED FRONTAL ZONE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED  
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE,  
DEPICTED WELL BY THE TROUGHING AT 850 MB, MOVES ACROSS THE FL  
PENINSULA. GIVEN LIKELY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND LIMITED HEATING  
DUE TO CLOUDINESS, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND  
NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ELEVATED CHARACTER OF THESE STORMS  
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE THREAT. AS SUCH, SEVERE THREAT WILL  
BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS IN  
THE UPPER 60S WILL SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND 500  
J/KG) AND A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS. GUIDANCE HAS  
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE  
PENINSULA, LEADING TO MORE POTENTIAL FOR BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS.  
COMBINATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY, BACKED SURFACE WINDS, AND  
STRENGTHENING OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL  
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA,  
PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES. A GREATER  
SEVERE THREAT IS CURRENTLY TEMPERED BY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES  
AND THE RESULTING MODEST INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES.  
 
..MOSIER.. 12/07/2017  
 

 
 
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