914  
ACUS03 KWNS 070718  
SWODY3  
SPC AC 070717  
 
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0117 AM CST THU DEC 07 2017  
 
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON  
SATURDAY.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT THROUGH THE BASE OF ITS  
LARGER PARENT UPPER TROUGH, MOVING FROM ITS INITIAL POSITION OVER  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE  
PERIOD. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH  
WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.  
EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO SHORTWAVES WILL RESULT IN AN EASTWARD SHIFT  
AND MODEST DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF  
THE CONUS, ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL WESTERN CONUS RIDGE/EASTERN CONUS  
TROUGH UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FL  
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FL PENINSULA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE  
STRENGTH OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, ISOLATED  
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE  
GUIDANCE REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY (RESULTING  
FROM MOIST PROFILES, LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING, AND WARM TEMPERATURES  
ALOFT) CURRENTLY KEEP SEVERE PROBABILITIES TOO LOW (I.E. BELOW 5%)  
TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS WITH THIS OUTLOOK.  
 
..MOSIER.. 12/07/2017  
 

 
 
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