514  
ACUS02 KWNS 071700  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 071659  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1059 AM CST THU DEC 07 2017  
 
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL EXIST ON FRIDAY WITH A  
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EAST. THE PRIMARY  
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH TWO MAIN SHORTWAVE  
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST. A MOIST AND  
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS  
THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER FLORIDA AND PERHAPS  
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. INCREASING WIND FIELDS NEAR A COLD FRONT SHOULD  
RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.  
ELSEWHERE, STABLE AIR WILL PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  
   
..FLORIDA
 
 
A FRONT WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS OF THURSDAY WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE  
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY NEAR THE STALLED PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER  
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WITH PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE PRIMARY  
RISK WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS WIND FIELDS INCREASE, AND THE  
FRONT ACCELERATES INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE  
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN TERMS OF FRONTAL POSITION, AND THE MAIN  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST, PRECLUDING A  
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY  
ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT, WITH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW AND MODEST  
LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTING A QLCS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING  
WINDS OR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES, PRIMARILY ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF  
THE STATE AS STORMS COME ASHORE.  
 
..JEWELL.. 12/07/2017  
 

 
 
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