238  
ACUS01 KWNS 071940  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 071938  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0138 PM CST THU DEC 07 2017  
 
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z  
   
..NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW ACROSS THE U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
 
NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS NO THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.  
 
..JEWELL.. 12/07/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1024 AM CST THU DEC 07 2017/  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A POSITIVE-TILT, LARGE-SCALE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC  
COAST, WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME, A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO TX. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW  
IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL FL, WITH A RELATIVELY  
MOIST WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM FL  
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION, THOUGH WEAK FORCING FOR  
ASCENT (OUTSIDE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS) AND REMAINING  
CAPPING SHOULD TEMPER ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. OTHERWISE, WEAK  
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ATOP THE COOL AIR MASS ACROSS  
THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST, ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. NAM FORECASTS ARE THE MOST  
AGGRESSIVE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL QUITE, BUT BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR  
700 MB SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL IN TERMS OF MAGNITUDE (100-200 J/KG)  
AND DEPTH (EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -20 C). WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION STILL  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW, WILL NOT INTRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK  
AREA.  
 

 
 
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