407  
ACUS02 KWNS 021716  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 021715  
 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1115 AM CST TUE JAN 02 2018  
 
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHER  
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY ALONG A PORTION OF THE  
EAST FLORIDA COAST.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE IN THE WEST. A  
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE BASE OF THE SYNOPTIC  
TROUGH AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS THE  
FL PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EAST  
COAST OF FL. FARTHER WEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL CA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
   
..CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS
 
 
MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION  
REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHWEST CA COASTAL AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH. SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING  
WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL MOVE ONSHORE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR  
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT.  
   
..FLORIDA EAST COAST
 
 
MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS  
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST FL COAST IN VICINITY OF A CONVERGENCE  
ZONE NEAR AN INVERTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL  
CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND, DEEPER IN THE POST FRONTAL  
ZONE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  
WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR  
CHARGE SEPARATION, A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
..DIAL.. 01/02/2018  
 

 
 
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