243  
ACUS11 KWNS 121958  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 121958  
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-130000-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0023  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0158 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN OHIO...NWRN PENNSYLVANIA...WRN  
NEW YORK  
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW  
 
VALID 121958Z - 130000Z  
 
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES MAY  
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE 4-8  
PM EST TIME FRAME.  
 
DISCUSSION...AS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DIG INTO  
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION, AND ANOTHER TROUGH  
PIVOTS ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, MODELS INDICATE  
AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC  
FORCING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION BY  
EARLY EVENING. ASSOCIATED LIFT, INCLUDING THROUGH THE FAVORABLE  
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF  
INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE INTERSTATE-71  
CORRIDOR OF OHIO, INTO THE CLEVELAND METRO AREA, AND EAST  
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH BUFFALO AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF WESTERN NEW  
YORK STATE. COINCIDING WITH FURTHER LOW/MID-LEVEL COOLING TO  
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, AS A SHARP COLD FRONT STEADILY ADVANCES  
SOUTHEASTWARD, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY MODERATE TO HEAVY  
SNOW. THIS MAY INCLUDE AT LEAST A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD AT RATES NEAR  
OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR, BEFORE HEAVIER SNOW BEGINS TO  
DEVELOP/SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
REGION THIS EVENING.  
 
..KERR.. 01/12/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...  
 
LAT...LON 41678237 42158139 43457867 43147743 40588123 39278331  
38818416 38948491 39398502 40398406 41678237  
 
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