423  
ACUS11 KWNS 062106  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 062106  
TXZ000-062300-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0050  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0306 PM CST TUE FEB 06 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST TEXAS  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 062106Z - 062300Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL IS TOO  
MARGINAL TO WARRANT WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE.  
 
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF  
SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO  
MUCH OF TEXAS. A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP FROM  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS WHERE LARGE-SCALE  
ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT  
IS LOCATED FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN NORTHEASTWARD INTO  
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE COOL SIDE OF  
THE BOUNDARY ABOUT 80 MILES TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF FORT WORTH.  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1200  
J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, THE RAP IS ANALYZING A POCKET OF STEEP  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS COMBINED WITH 40  
TO 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR EVIDENT ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD  
BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
..BROYLES/HART.. 02/06/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...  
 
LAT...LON 31369588 31619461 32289412 32959426 33409483 33119582  
32829647 32349734 31859798 31499784 31319688 31369588  
 
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