957  
ACUS11 KWNS 062139  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 062139  
MSZ000-LAZ000-062345-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0051  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0339 PM CST TUE FEB 06 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 062139Z - 062345Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...A FEW SMALL/ROTATING CELLS COULD POSE VERY  
LIMITED/ISOLATED/BRIEF RISK FOR MARGINAL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN A  
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. RISK SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR WW  
CONSIDERATION.  
 
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT --  
SEPARATING LOW 70S DEWPOINT AIR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO  
FROM INLAND MID 60S DEWPOINTS -- JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA COAST. AS A RESULT, AN INLAND SHALLOW/STABLE BOUNDARY  
LAYER PERSISTS, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LARGELY HINDER SEVERE  
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
WITH THAT SAID, DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO  
SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS, AND A FEW ROTATING  
CELLS HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA  
VICINITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SMALL HAIL REMAINS THE  
PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE VERY ISOLATED/ROTATING STORMS. PRESUMING  
THE WARM FRONT REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE, ANY POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING  
WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN-UP INLAND WILL REMAIN LOW/QUITE  
ISOLATED AT BEST.  
 
..GOSS/HART.. 02/06/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...  
 
LAT...LON 29289296 29869215 30409110 30868968 31008880 30528846  
29718824 28948823 28608895 28809180 29289296  
 
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