895  
ACUS11 KWNS 062338  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 062337  
OKZ000-TXZ000-070330-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0537 PM CST TUE FEB 06 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA  
 
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION  
 
VALID 062337Z - 070330Z  
 
SUMMARY...POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET/SMALL HAIL WILL MOVE  
NORTHEAST FROM AREAS JUST NORTH OF DFW TO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN  
INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
DISCUSSION...RECENT KFWS (FT WORTH WSR-88D) DATA SHOW A RELATIVELY  
QUICK BLOSSOMING OF HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CORES THIS EVENING, GENERALLY  
CENTERED OVER DENTON COUNTY. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY AS  
WELL. WARM-AIR ADVECTION AROUND 850-700MB AND RELATED ISENTROPIC  
ASCENT ARE LIKELY ENCOURAGING THIS EVOLUTION, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
DEPICT ELEVATED BUOYANCY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE GROWTH.  
MEANWHILE, SURFACE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE METROPLEX ARE  
NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. IN TURN, THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF BRIEF BURSTS OF FREEZING RAIN, OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH  
SLEET AND EVEN SMALL HAIL (CONSIDERING STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES),  
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MPING AND DUAL-POLARIZATION  
(PRIMARILY ZDR) DATA SUGGEST A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SMALL  
HAIL/SLEET IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN HEAVIER CORES, AND FREEZING RAIN  
RATES OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS  
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA  
THROUGH MID EVENING.  
 
..PICCA.. 02/06/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...  
 
LAT...LON 33079680 32929742 32889755 32809777 33029802 33249797  
34249683 34479633 34739571 34829484 34569476 34099532  
33219657 33079680  
 
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