332  
ACUS11 KWNS 070008  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 070008  
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-070415-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0608 PM CST TUE FEB 06 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN  
ILLINOIS...FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE  
 
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN  
 
VALID 070008Z - 070415Z  
 
SUMMARY...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE ONGOING AND SHOULD INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS  
TO ONE TENTH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR HEAVIER  
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.  
 
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE CONTINUING TO  
EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY. THE REGION IS UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF ASCENT FROM A COUPLE OF SOURCES: 1) A WEAK SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH MIGRATING TOWARD THE REGION FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND 2)  
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE AT AROUND THE 800-850MB LAYER ATOP A VERY COOL  
(SUB-FREEZING) NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS. ONGOING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION  
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND - ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE  
REGIME FORCING ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT  
LEAST 04Z. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE DISCUSSION  
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD AND RESULT IN ICE  
ACCUMULATIONS ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.  
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF PRECIP ACCUMULATION ARE  
LIKELY, WITH AN AXIS OF A 0.1 TO 0.5 INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE FROM  
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI BENEATH HEAVIER  
AND/OR PROLONGED ACTIVITY.  
 
..COOK.. 02/07/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...  
 
LAT...LON 35919409 36849254 37829111 38118996 37978885 37668831  
37068825 36338877 35569021 35039141 34999269 35219382  
35409419 35919409  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page