517  
ACUS11 KWNS 071704  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 071704  
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-071900-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0059  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1104 AM CST WED FEB 07 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO ADJACENT  
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST GEORGIA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 071704Z - 071900Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...A RELATIVE CONCENTRATION OF MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS  
EVIDENT OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA, FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WW NOT  
REQUIRED.  
 
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SMALL ZONE OF  
STILL-BACKED (SOUTHERLY) WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY  
MAXIMIZED (MID TO UPPER 60S) DEWPOINTS, CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF  
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS AREA OF RELATIVELY GREATER DEWPOINTS IS  
RESULTING IN A BULLS-EYE OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE (500 TO 1000 J/KG),  
AND SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AS A RESULT OF THE BACKED  
SURFACE WINDS.  
 
WHILE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
ALABAMA TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY  
CONTAMINATE THE SLIGHTLY MORE-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT RESIDING OVER  
THE DISCUSSION AREA, A SHORT-TERM WINDOW CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A  
FEW STRONGER/ROTATING STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK -- IS  
EVIDENT. OVERALL RISK STILL REMAINS LOW/ISOLATED, AND AS SUCH WW  
ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.  
 
..GOSS/HART.. 02/07/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...  
 
LAT...LON 30338708 30638707 31308603 31548543 31638477 30978454  
30528513 30328614 30338708  
 
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