990  
ACUS11 KWNS 121743  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 121742  
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-122015-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1242 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN GEORGIA AND  
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 121742Z - 122015Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AS  
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING REACHED. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE  
LIKELY AND SEVERE WIND IS POSSIBLE.  
 
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS  
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BREACHED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND  
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN GEORGIA. STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ALSO  
BE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING WESTWARD FROM EASTERN  
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH NORTHERN GEORGIA. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A  
BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED WITH 1500-2000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE,  
BUT THERE IS MOSTLY WEAK SHEAR/FLOW ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT  
UPSCALE ORGANIZATION. DCAPE OF 800-1200 J/KG WITH A STEEP LOW-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES (8.5+ C/KM) AND A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER (25-30+  
C SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS) INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG  
WIND GUSTS, AND SEVERE WIND IS POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO  
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH/EAST INTO THE EVENING.  
A WATCH IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE WIND  
THREAT AND ANTICIPATED LACK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.  
 
..NAUSLAR/THOMPSON.. 07/12/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...  
 
LAT...LON 34928318 35008219 35088070 34837917 34407863 33707933  
33088016 32538112 32868167 33818288 34928318  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page