781  
ACUS11 KWNS 121947  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 121947  
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-122215-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0247 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHEAST  
COLORADO...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 121947Z - 122215Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA  
AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST/NORTH THROUGHOUT THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD IS PRESENT  
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED FARTHER  
TO THE EAST ALONG A SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S  
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION WILL INCREASE  
BUOYANCY (MLCAPE OF 1000-3000+ J/KG) DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
SHEAR IS MOSTLY WEAK ACROSS THE AREA OF INTEREST, ALTHOUGH SOME  
MARGINAL SHEAR DOES EXIST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH  
DAKOTA. SCATTERED MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, INITIALLY FOCUSING ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY RUNNING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST  
COLORADO, AND WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE UPSCALE INTO A QLCS THIS EVENING.  
GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8.5+ C/KM) AND DCAPE OF 1000+  
J/KG, STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY AND SEVERE WIND IS POSSIBLE. THE  
WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE IF A QLCS DOES FORM LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
..NAUSLAR/THOMPSON.. 07/12/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...  
CYS...  
 
LAT...LON 39960214 40350241 40760309 41720326 42920305 43020230  
43339996 43549910 43759743 43799676 43199634 42619626  
42269695 42009816 41380039 40530046 39960214  
 
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