168  
ACUS11 KWNS 122148  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 122147  
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-122315-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0447 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY  
 
VALID 122147Z - 122315Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS  
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN  
AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.  
 
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS SHOWN GROWTH IN CUMULUS ALONG THE  
SOUTHWARD TRACKING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION ALREADY  
ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF MSP HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE  
LAST 30 MINUTES OR SO. MOST OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MN IS  
BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ELEVATED. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE  
MODEST, AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION,  
THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.  
 
THIS INITIAL CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY BEEN UNDERCUT BY THE ADVANCING  
BOUNDARY, HOWEVER, AS STORMS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS  
EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE OF MORE BOWING SEGMENTS TO  
DEVELOP ALONG, OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS  
CONVECTION SHOULD TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY  
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI WITH DAMAGING WINDS  
EXPECTED. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.  
 
..LEITMAN/HART.. 07/12/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...  
 
LAT...LON 45359342 45449263 45419189 45179117 44769079 44329096  
43849167 43499385 43449633 43569680 44349667 44749581  
45159424 45359342  
 
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