167  
ACUS11 KWNS 122337  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 122336  
SDZ000-NEZ000-130100-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0636 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN NE INTO  
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SD  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273...  
 
VALID 122336Z - 130100Z  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...MAINLY AN ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT  
CONTINUES ACROSS WW 273.  
 
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS  
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SD ALONG A WEAK  
COLD FRONT HAVE BEEN MOSTLY DISORGANIZED OWING TO STRONGER MID-LEVEL  
WINDS REMAINING DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. VISIBLE  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS  
SOUTHEASTERN SD ALONG THE FRONT AS OF 2330Z. THE AIRMASS TO THE  
SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS HOT/UNSTABLE, WITH MLCAPE UP TO 3000-4000  
J/KG ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NE/FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD. STEEP LOW-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES COULD ENCOURAGE ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING  
DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH THE MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN  
LIMITING FACTORS THAT SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED  
THROUGH THE EVENING REMAIN WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND THE  
TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD AND BEHIND THE SURFACE  
FRONT.  
 
..GLEASON.. 07/12/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...  
 
LAT...LON 42780200 43489927 44169664 42559667 42079830 41480026  
41370197 42780200  
 
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