908  
ACUS11 KWNS 130036  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 130035  
WIZ000-MNZ000-130200-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0735 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2018  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WI  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 274...  
 
VALID 130035Z - 130200Z  
 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 274  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING  
WIND THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. THE THREAT MAY  
PERSIST DOWNSTREAM OF WW 274 INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL WI AND TRENDS  
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE TO THE EAST OF WW  
274.  
 
DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND JUST  
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION  
CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN WI WITH A BOWING SEGMENT THAT  
HAS DEVELOPMENT MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS BOWING  
SEGMENT IS TRACKING INTO AN AREA OF STRONG MLCAPE GREATER THAN 2000  
J/KG AND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR  
30-40 KT. ON THIS CURRENT TRACK, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUTSIDE  
THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AROUND 02Z. SHOULD THE LINE  
MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY, OR ORGANIZE FURTHER, A DOWNSTREAM WATCH  
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL WI. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE  
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  
 
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN, STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DUE  
TO THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS  
THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STILL POSE A  
STRONG WIND THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
..LEITMAN.. 07/13/2018  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...  
 
LAT...LON 45679171 45778999 45508931 45018905 44258914 43898994  
43819198 43779284 43589464 43579545 43759583 44199560  
44739427 45679171  
 
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