868
FXPQ60 PGUM 080520
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
320 PM CHST MON APR 8 2019
MARIANAS SYNOPSIS
SATELLITE AND RADAR BOTH SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY AND SHOWER-FREE SKIES
ACROSS THE MARIANAS TODAY. DRY WEATHER EXISTS TO THE EAST BEYOND
150E. IPAN AND RITIDIAN BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF 3.5 TO 5 FEET.
DISCUSSION
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN REGIONAL WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. VERY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARIANAS AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A WEAK SHEAR
LINE COMING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FAR-NORTHERN CNMI AROUND MIDWEEK.
THE GFS DOES BRING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS SAIPAN AND TINIAN, BUT
BOTH MODELS STILL SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME AS BOTH
MODELS SHOW 10-DAY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BUT LIGHTER WINDS WILL
LIMIT THE RATE OF SPREAD OF FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP. COMBINED SEAS
OF 4 TO 5 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BUT COULD
BUILD BY 1 TO 2 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND.
EASTERN MICRONESIA AND CHUUK
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER CHUUK AND POHNPEI TODAY. MEANWHILE, SATELLITE
LOOPS SHOW AREAS OF SHOWERS, TRIGGERED BY TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE,
OVER SOUTHERN KOSRAE STATE AND THE SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE
AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY SPREADING WEST AND SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.
ALSO, THE CONVERGENCE IS BEING RE-ENFORCED BY A FLOW OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS ARRIVING FROM ACROSS THE DATE LINE. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD KOSRAE TONIGHT, REACH
MAJURO LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE
TO POHNPEI WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN PROBABLY REACH CHUUK ABOUT
THURSDAY, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
WESTERN MICRONESIA FOR YAP AND KOROR
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THIS AREA. A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH
RUNS ACROSS SOUTHERN PALAU. ALSO, A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES NORTHWARD
BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK. PATCHY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING NEAR BOTH TROUGHS. MODELS INDICATE BOTH TROUGHS WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN IN THE COMING DAYS, WHILE THE N-E TROUGH AND MOST SHOWERS
BECOME MORE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF 5N. SO, PATCHY SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN NEAR YAP AND KOROR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, THEN A DRIER EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW FOR YAP AND KOROR IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK.
GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
M. AYDLETT/SIMPSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page