906
FXHW60 PHFO 011339 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 01 2009
SYNOPSIS
THE ISLAND WEATHER WILL BE TURNING COOLER AS A COLD FRONT CLOSES IN
ON THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL BRINGING SOME RAIN AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND HALF OF THE NEW WEEK WILL GENERALLY BE DRY.
DISCUSSION
WE CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTS INVOLVED THAT WILL
INFLUENCE THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.
FIRST IS THE STATIONARY OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED 150 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. SECOND IS THE EASTWARD MOVING REINFORCING COLD
FRONT LOCATED 580 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THESE TWO WILL MERGE
INTO ONE...REACHING KAUAI MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FOLLOWED BY
OAHU TUESDAY MORNING AROUND RUSH HOUR. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING
AND DISSIPATING WHILE MOVING THROUGH MAUI COUNTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND RATHER WEAK UPON REACHING THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AS IT PUSHES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. ADDITIONALLY...
KAUAI AND OAHU COUNTIES MAY GET A BOOST OF STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...THE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE UP TO 8
DEGREES COOLER STATEWIDE. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE A DRYING PROCESS TAKES HOLD AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE
AREA NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING TO AGREEMENT INTO THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
DEEP SURFACE LOW. SO FAR...THEY ARE PRETTY CLOSE UP TIL EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THEY DIFFER THEREAFTER WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BEING
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE LOW 660 MILES
NORTHEAST OF OAHU AT 28N150W THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
THE LOW AN ADDITIONAL 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE GFS LOW AT 33N140W.
THIS MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE AS TO WHAT KIND OF WIND THE ISLANDS
WILL HAVE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS WESTERLY WINDS AS COMPARE TO
NORTHERLY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. WE WILL LEAVE THE WIND
GRIDS ALONE UNTIL THE MODELS HAVE A MORE CONSISTENT LOCATION.
IN THE MEAN TIME...WEATHER RADAR SHOWS A GOOD BIT OF SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. JUST ABOUT ALL THE WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF ALL THE MAJOR ISLANDS ARE BEING PEPPERED WITH
THESE SHOWERS THIS HOUR. THEY ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND BRIEF.
THE STRENGTH OF THE TRADES REMAINS MODERATE.
THE MORNING WEATHER BALLOON SOUNDING DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INVERSION TO THAT OF 12 HOURS AGO. IT IS CURRENTLY AT 6 TO 7
THOUSAND FEET COMPARED TO 3200 TO 6000 FEET.
MARINE
BUOY DATA SUPPORTS THE CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY /HSA/
THROUGH TODAY. THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THIS HSA IS 6 PM HST MONDAY.
THE FORECAST SURFACE LOW NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. A SIGNIFICANT NORTH SWELL
GENERATED BY THIS LOW MAY AFFECT THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COR
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR THE
WATERS WEST THROUGH NORTH OF KAUAI FOR THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AND OAHU UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF MOLOKAI AND MAUI
UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
H LAU
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