110
FXHW60 PHFO 051941
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
941 AM HST THU NOV 5 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE REMNANT OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERY WEATHER
OVER MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND TODAY. ANOTHER SHOWER BAND
MAY ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE WINDWARD SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL WEAKEN NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS FELL ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE MOST RAIN FALLING OVER MAUI WITH THE OHEO GULCH
RAINGAGE RECEIVING 1.32 INCHES WHILE PUU KUKUI WAS DRENCHED WITH
2.99 INCHES OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND. MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE LEEWARD SMALLER ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SUN HEATS THE TOP OF THE CLOUDS.
WINDWARD CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EAST TO WEST BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS
ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. THAT BAND MAY REACH THE
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP TRADE
WINDS BLOWING AT MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS TODAY...AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP
THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND SHOWERS THAT DO
FALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THERE ARE BIG RUN TO RUN
DIFFERENCES IN MANY OF THE MODELS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A TROUGH ALOFT
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
DISRUPTING THE TRADES. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON
HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL DIG. IF
THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL DEVELOP. IF THE TROUGH IS
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
LITTLE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS. UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS UP FOR MANY AREAS. THE PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...
MAALAEA BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE 25 KT WINDS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ELSEWHERE...BUT THE KAUAI AND KAIWI
CHANNELS AND THE KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS WILL HAVE SEAS OF 10 FT OR
GREATER. THE WINDS SHOULD TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
AND NO OTHER LARGE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.
MORRISON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page