945
FXHW60 PHFO 060156
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
356 PM HST THU NOV 5 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SHOWER BAND CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADE WINDS MAY ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BRING MORE WINDWARD SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDWARD SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
WITH LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING DRY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS WITH A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. HENCE...THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
SHOULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS LOCATED 175 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE MAY REACH THE
ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INCREASE SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP TRADE
WINDS BLOWING AT MODERATE TO FRESH SPEEDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND SHOWERS THAT DO FALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS AND OTHER MODELS CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP FROM RUN TO RUN AS
WELL. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS NEXT WEEK...LIKELY DISRUPTING THE TRADES. THE POSITION
OF THE TROUGH WILL BE CRITICAL TO HAWAII/S WEATHER. IF THE TROUGH
MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL DEVELOP. IF THE TROUGH IS LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH LITTLE
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINS. UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME MORE
CONSISTENT...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS LOW.
SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CONSERVATIVE WITH WEAKENING
TRADES EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INCREASED INSTABILITY BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH WAVES AND WINDS DECREASING
BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS.
A NEW MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL BE REINFORCED ON SUNDAY. A LARGER NORTH NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
MORRISON
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