687
FXHW60 PHFO 072000
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE
ISLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK. TRADE SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS...BUT SOME WILL BE BLOWN OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS.
DISCUSSION
PRESSURE FALLS OF 1 TO 2 MILLIBARS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATE
THAT THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY...WHICH
EXPLAINS THE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER TRADE WINDS WE ARE SEEING AROUND THE
ISLANDS. PROGS SAY THAT THE HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE TRADES AT ABOUT
THE PRESENT VELOCITIES AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ALSO PREDICT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LINGER WEST
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CARRYING PATCHY
HIGH CLOUDS UP OVER THE STATE FROM TIME TO TIME. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH KAUAI SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME UNSTABLE AIR TO THE ISLANDS...
WHICH MAY INCREASE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MAY RESULT IN WET TRADE WINDS
WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE WET FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS AND COMBINED SEAS. THE ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ONLY THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
IN SPITE OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL...SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
CRAIG
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