538
FXHW60 PHFO 080133
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO THE
ISLANDS INTO NEXT WEEK. TRADE SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS...BUT SOME WILL BE BLOWN OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS.
DISCUSSION
PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 2 MILLIBARS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS WEAKENED...WHICH
EXPLAINS THE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER TRADE WINDS WE ARE SEEING AROUND THE
ISLANDS. PROGS SAY THAT THE HIGH SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN THE TRADES AT ABOUT THE PRESENT MODERATE VELOCITIES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
MODELS ALSO PREDICT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI
WILL WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILST APPROACHING KAUAI SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY
AND LAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME MORE
WET TRADE WINDS...WHICH IS HOPEFULLY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE FOR LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS IN THE
WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN A NORTHEAST SWELL MAY
RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
CRAIG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page