708  
FXUS61 KPBZ 190136  
AFDPBZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA  
936 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND WITH SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE.  
 
PREVIOUS...  
CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVE UPDATE WERE PRIMARILY TO HOURLY  
TRENDS WITH AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS OVER NORTHERN ZONES  
BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TRENDS. IN GENERAL, OVERNIGHT  
LOWS WERE PROJECTED 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES WITH DRY  
HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTING THE CLEAR SKY, LIGHT WIND, AND  
RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON  
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL.  
 
RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND  
THE INTO THE EVENING AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF  
AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED  
UPPER LOW OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,  
CLOUD COVERAGE, AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE  
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND LIGHT NORTH WIND. THAT WIND  
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
RESTRICITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH ENCROACHING WEEKEND LOW PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
PA...NONE.  
WV...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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