093  
FXUS63 KIWX 162330  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
630 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN AND WILL REMAIN AROUND THE  
REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THE WARM AIR AROUND, THE SYSTEM COMING  
IN LATER SUNDAY WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE  
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
OTHERWISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
LITTLE OF CONSEQUENCE THIS PERIOD. AS SURMISED YESTERDAY... SHEARING  
SRN STREAM SW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUN AFTN LOOKS TO FALL APART PER  
CONTINUED CONSENSUS INTRAMODEL TRENDS CUTBACK ON TEMPORAL  
DISTRIBUTION OF POPS FOR SUN AFTN ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT DECAYING PRECIP  
BAND TO OVERLAP SRN ZONES.  
 
OTHERWISE GENERALLY MOIST AND LIKELY DRIZZLY WITHIN OTHERWISE  
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX MON AND STAYED THE COURSE WITH  
MINIMAL POP MENTION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
FAIRLY FLAT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CONUS INTO MID WEEK BEFORE THE  
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS NOAM BUCKLES SIGNIFICANTLY. EWD EXPANSION OF  
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MARKS TUE AS THE WARMEST DAY THIS WEEK AND  
GIVEN THE LIKELY MELTOFF OF EXISTING SNOW COVER A RUN TOWARD 50  
LIKELY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.  
 
OTHERWISE LITTLE OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NOTE TIL FRI TIMED WITH EWD  
PEEL OF AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM SW TROUGH AND EMERGENCE OF NEXT ARCTIC  
INTRUSION INTO THE NRN/NERN US. WHILE PLACEMENT OF LOW LEVEL  
BAROCLINIC ZONE SOMEWHAT IN FLUX... CONSENSUS INDICATED  
INCORPORATION OF WRN GOMEX MOISTURE RETURN BEARS WATCHING TIMED WITH  
LEADING EDGE OF COLD ADVECTION WING CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES.  
BLENDED POP SOLUTIONS AT THIS RANGE GENERALLY ACCEPTED YET HEDGED  
TEMPS LOWER FRI-SUN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 621 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2017  
 
CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRY  
AIR WILL FILTER IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MODELS BRING  
SOME LOWER CIGS/VISBY NEAR SBN AND FWA EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH APPEAR  
TO BE CAUSED BY THE CURRENT SNOW PACK MELTING AS A RESULT OF  
HIGHER SFC TD/T TODAY AND GETTING CAUGHT UNDER THE NOCTURNAL  
INVERSION. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHAT TIME DOES APPROACHING  
CIRRUS ARRIVE AND IS IT ENOUGH TO QUELL STRATUS/FOG FORMATION.  
SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN FUTURE FORECASTS. FOR NOW, BELIEVE THERE  
IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT SOME EARLY MORNING MVFR VIS AT SBN  
FOR NOW.  
 
THEREAFTER, EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON  
AND SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH  
BEFORE TURNING TO DRIZZLE LATER DAY.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/ROLLER  
SHORT TERM...T  
LONG TERM...T  
AVIATION...ROLLER  
 
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