768  
FGUS74 KOUN 181424  
ESFOUN  
TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-190224-  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK  
924 AM CDT THU MAY 18 2017  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE (AHPS) LONG RANGE  
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN WESTERN  
NORTH TEXAS...  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS  
IMPLEMENTED ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES (AHPS) FOR THE  
BRAZOS RIVER BASIN IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AHPS ENABLES THE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC  
OUTLOOKS. THIS SERVICE IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET.  
 
IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE  
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE  
NEXT 90 DAYS. EXAMPLE: THE BRAZOS RIVER AT SEYMOUR HAS A FLOOD  
STAGE OF 12 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE SEYMOUR  
FORECAST POINT WILL RISE ABOVE 7.4 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
VALID 05/17/2017 - 08/15/2017  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%  
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---  
BRAZOS RIVER  
SEYMOUR 12.0 2.4 3.5 4.3 5.9 7.4 8.4 9.5 13.7 18.1  
 
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%  
------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------  
MILLER CREEK  
MILLERS CR LK 1340.0 1333.4 1333.4 1333.5 1333.6 1333.9  
 
40% 30% 20% 10%  
------ ------ ------ ------  
1334.3 1334.4 1334.7 1335.7  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE  
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 50 YEARS OF HISTORICAL  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE NUMBERS ALSO TAKE  
INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER AND SOIL MOISTURE.  
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE  
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN  
BE DETERMINED.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATION ARE AVAILABLE ON THE  
INTERNET AT: HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=OUN  
 
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED AROUND THE THIRD  
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.  
 

 
 
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