383  
FNUS74 KAMA 201351  
FWSAMA  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BORGER P66 UNIT...BORGER OEM  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
751 AM CST MON NOV 20 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 CST ON NOVEMBER 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (806) 335-1421, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN WAKE OF  
A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING EAST, AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS TO SUBSIDE. SW WINDS STARTING OUT  
AROUND 10-15 MPH IN THE MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AROUND 5-10 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND VARY FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE  
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RH VALUES TO DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR  
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS AND A STRONG INVERSION WILL  
RESULT IN POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SHOW A HAINES INDEX  
AROUND 5 FOR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME GROWTH, BUT THIS WILL  
DEPEND ON HOW WARM WE GET AND WHETHER THE INVERSION CAN BE MIXED OUT.  
A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE BORGER AREA BETWEEN 1AM AND 4AM TONIGHT.  
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNRISE  
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 14 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (4000 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............39 53 64 73 73  
RH..............42 24 16 11 11  
20 FT WIND......SW 10 SW 9 W 7 SW 6 SW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 12 9 8 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W W SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 5 5 6  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5  
VRATE KT-FT/10006 5 4 6 8  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.  
MAX HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHERLY  
AT 15-25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTHERLY AT 20  
TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............61 53 46 43 42 39  
RH..............17 24 32 36 34 37  
20 FT WIND......S 6 SW 6 SW 7 W 8 NW 12 NW 15  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 9 10 12 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S SW W NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 10 10 20  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
FORECASTER...WARD  
REQUESTED BY...JASON WHISLER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1718999.1/AMA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page