749  
FNUS74 KAMA 021343  
FWSAMA  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR DUMAS BRUSH BURN...DUMAS FIRE DEPT.  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
843 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MAY 02.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MIN RH VALUES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 40 TO 45% WITH  
PEAK 20 FT WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY  
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL FILL  
IN WITH CLOUDS AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THERE IS A 30% TO 35% OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING THIS  
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-27500 KNOT-FT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.  
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500-5500 FT AGL.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TEMP............49 58 63 69 72  
RH..............76 58 51 46 43  
20 FT WIND......E 5 E 5 SE 5 S 7 SE 8  
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4  
VENTR KTFT/1000.6 9 15 22 25  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (0-28000 KNOT-FT).  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 45.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1900, THEN 3 UNTIL 0100, THEN 4.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 16 TO  
25 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO  
NORTH 29 TO 32 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT DECREASING TO  
15 TO 22 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1500 FT AGL IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 8 TO 17 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TEMP............72 66 57 52 49 47  
RH..............43 49 67 84 93 100  
20 FT WIND......E 8 NE 12 E 17 NE 14 N 14 N 17  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 15 25 20 20 25  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 30 30 30 40 40  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3  
VENTR KTFT/1000.22 12 0 11 25 7  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (15000-56400 KNOT-FT) INCREASING  
TO EXCELLENT TO EXCELLENT (204000-205000  
KNOT-FT).  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
LAL.................4 UNTIL 0700, THEN 1.  
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.  
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 17 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 30 MPH  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500-8500 FT  
AGL.  
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 17 TO 21 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TEMP............45 46 52 56 60 62  
RH..............100 97 77 59 47 40  
20 FT WIND......N 17 N 17 N 17 N 20 N 21 N 20  
20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 25 30 30 30  
CHC OF PCPN (%).40 20 20 20 10 10  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VENTR KTFT/1000.15 26 34 84 154 204  
 

 
FORECASTER...MECCARIELLO  
REQUESTED BY...RON PRAY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1708150.0/AMA  
 
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