988  
FNUS74 KAMA 011350  
FWSAMA  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR DUMAS BRUSH BURN...DUMAS FIRE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
850 AM CDT WED AUG 1 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CDT ON AUGUST 01.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
 
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (806) 335-1421, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND  
15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IN  
OTHER WORDS, BETWEEN 5PM AND 7PM THE WIND SPEEDS WILL TRANSITION  
TO FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS AROUND  
10-15 MPH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING WILL POSE A RISK FOR  
VARIABLE AND AT TIMES GUSTY/STRONG WIND SPEEDS. THERE IS A 60  
PERCENT CHANCE LATER TODAY FOR THE DUMAS AREA. WIND SPEEDS OF 45  
TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT DO DEVELOP. LIGHTNING WILL OF COURSE BE A RISK AS WELL.  
AROUND 9PM IS THE FIRST INITIAL ESTIMATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND  
THE DUMAS AREA. THIS COULD CHANGE ONCE WE SEE THE "WHITES OF ITS  
EYES" AND CAN BETTER TRACK THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY INITIATE LATER  
TODAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. PLEASE DON'T HESITATE TO CALL THE  
OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION OR ASSISTANCE.  
 
GUERRERO  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.  
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2000-3500 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO  
5500-7000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON  
DECREASING TO 5000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2500 FT AGL DECREASING  
TO 0 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 13  
TO 22 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 8 TO 10 MPH EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-38000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
GOOD TO EXCELLENT (45000-77000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN  
THE MORNING, THEN DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR  
(0-20000 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............59 68 78 86 90 91  
RH..............75 55 39 32 28 28  
20 FT WIND......SE 7 S 10 S 14 SW 13 SW 8 S 6  
20 FT WIND GUST. 19 21 16 9 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 1.5 3.5 7.0 2.5 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S SW W SW S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 18 21 13 9 8  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 24 63 77 20 0  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1900, THEN >25 STRIKES.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 3 TO 6 MPH  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY  
WEATHER COV..... LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 60 60 60 60 60  
LAL.............1 5 5 5 5 5  
TEMP............92 87 79 73 69 68  
RH..............27 32 44 59 70 73  
20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 10 SE 10 S 9 S 7 S 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.11 14 19 16 14 8  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE N NW W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 3 3 5 6  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 0 0 0 0 0  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................>25 STRIKES UNTIL 0700, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 92.  
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8000-9500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-44000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO  
EXCELLENT (60500 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........LIKELY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............5 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............66 63 74 83 89 92  
RH..............79 85 60 43 33 29  
20 FT WIND......S 7 S 7 S 8 S 8 S 8 S 9  
20 FT WIND GUST. 8 9 9 9 11  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.5 1.5 4.0 7.0 9.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 6 9 13 12 9  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/10000 3 12 44 70 76  
 

 
FORECASTER...GUERRERO  
REQUESTED BY...RONALD PRAY  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1813835.1/AMA  
.DELDT 08/01/18  
 
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