191  
FXUS64 KAMA 240952  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
352 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CRITICAL AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE FOREFRONT OF  
THE FORECAST. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH  
TUESDAY, WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGING THEREAFTER.  
 
WIDESPREAD SATURATED LOW-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE EARLY THIS  
MORNING WILL BE ERADICATED FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY AS PACIFIC COLD  
FRONT ARRIVES. STRONG WEST WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE,  
WITH BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CANADIAN COLD FRONT  
THEN ARRIVES, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUNDAY CLOSE TO NORMAL.  
 
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF PASSES ON SUNDAY, ACTING TO TIGHTEN  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND KEEP ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED. FLOW ALOFT  
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY, LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF NEXT LEE  
TROF AND INCREASING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
ON MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY  
WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. WARMER AGAIN ON  
FRIDAY. 03  
 
COCKRELL  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS  
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH ELEVATED  
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ADJACENT TO THE THE CRITICAL AREA. DRY  
WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE PACIFIC AND CANADIAN  
COLD FRONTS PASS TODAY. RFTI VALUES OF 3 TO 6 ARE EXPECTED IN  
THE CRITICAL AREA.  
 
ON SUNDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES, WITH SPOTTY  
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING.  
 
ON MONDAY, ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE  
LIKELY TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE  
COMBINED PANHANDLES.  
 
ON TUESDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS  
WESTERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.  
 
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
THURSDAY.  
 
ON FRIDAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. 03  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 54 22 54 22 64 / 0 0 0 0 0  
BEAVER OK 47 18 53 17 64 / 10 0 0 0 0  
BOISE CITY OK 47 18 46 17 61 / 5 0 0 0 0  
BORGER TX 54 26 55 26 65 / 0 0 0 0 0  
BOYS RANCH TX 56 20 55 17 67 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CANYON TX 54 20 55 19 64 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CLARENDON TX 58 25 59 23 65 / 5 0 0 0 0  
DALHART TX 51 18 50 14 64 / 0 0 0 0 0  
GUYMON OK 48 20 51 20 64 / 10 0 0 0 0  
HEREFORD TX 53 21 56 19 66 / 0 0 0 0 0  
LIPSCOMB TX 49 24 56 21 63 / 10 0 0 0 0  
PAMPA TX 53 24 55 24 64 / 5 0 0 0 0  
SHAMROCK TX 60 24 59 24 64 / 10 0 0 0 0  
WELLINGTON TX 62 27 61 25 66 / 10 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS  
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...DEAF SMITH...  
OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.  
 
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
29/03  
 
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