108  
FXUS64 KAMA 212239 AAA  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
539 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.  
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15  
KNOTS. LATER ON AROUND 15Z THE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20 KNOTS  
SUSTAINED WITH GUST TO 25-30 KNOTS. DHT COULD SEE A POSSIBLE  
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 18Z AND 24Z, DURING WHICH MVFR CONDITIONS  
COULD BE POSSIBLE.  
 
HOFFEDITZ/GOEHRING  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 406 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE  
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90 TO 100 DEGREE RANGE  
ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. LOW-LEVEL  
MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF DRYLINE-  
LIKE FEATURE WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD INTO THE 50S AND  
LOWER- TO MID-60S. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THESE EASTERN SECTIONS, WITH STRONG TO  
MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
DIMINISH RAPIDLY WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION, AS UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS  
WEAK.  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING LONGWAVE MID-  
LEVEL TROF OVER WESTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH A  
SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING  
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH WILL LEAD TO STRONG MOIST  
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO  
55 KNOTS NIGHTLY. THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL GIVE US A  
PROLONGED STRETCH OF UNSETTLED WEATHER, WITH THUNDERSTORMS  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT FOR  
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE LOW, BUT HEAVY AND  
REPEATED RAINS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY  
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHERE INSTABILITY  
WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE BETTER  
OPPORTUNITIES FOR VORTICITY ADVECTION. CHANCES RISE ON SATURDAY  
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IMPROVE. BY  
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, HIGHER POPS BECOME ORIENTED OVER CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN SECTIONS, WITH ALL AREAS HAVING HEALTHY POPS.  
 
BY MONDAY, DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO BEGIN WORKING INTO THE NORTHWEST  
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH WESTERN SECTION POPS CONTINUING TO  
BE THE LOWER. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM  
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY  
TUESDAY, NORTH AND NORTHEAST POST-FRONTAL FLOW EXPECTED, BUT  
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE DUE TO EXPECTED ISENTROPIC LIFT.  
 
COCKRELL  
 
FIRE WEATHER...  
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PANHANDLES FOR THE  
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN WILL EXIST  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE  
20 PERCENT.  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
36/15  
 
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