647
FXUS64 KAMA 080327 AAB
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
927 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009
UPDATE
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING PULLED NORTH INTO WEST TX ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SHORT
TERM WHICH WILL KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTH WINDS UP A BIT. THE SURFACE TROF
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD RELAX THE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT...BUT A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. IT SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY BUT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S SHOULD BE IN
ORDER DESPITE THE INCREASE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL
ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.
SKY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND
WIND/DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE TWEAKED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. OTHER CHANGES
WERE RELATIVELY MINOR OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED UP IN MOST
AREAS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN SENT.
JOHNSON
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 452 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
AVIATION...
A SUBTLE CHANGE TO THE NORM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO EJECTS INTO SOUTH TEXAS.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO STREAM NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE UPCOMING 09/00Z FORECAST.
ALSO...A COLD FRONT COULD EDGE INTO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE DELAYED INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHEN THE LOWER LEVELS FINALLY
SATURATE.
NUNEZ
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST SAT NOV 7 2009/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY DAY SUNDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY BY 21Z SUNDAY FROM NORTHEAST
NM INTO CENTRAL KS. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING...PUSHING ACROSS ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST OUT OF
EASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM BY LATE SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
GRIDS AND FORECAST IS TO INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WITH BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING LIFT...AND WINDS BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS MOS INDICATING VISIBILITIES OF NEAR ONE MILE
OR LESS IN FOG FOR KAMA BY 12Z MONDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH CLOSELY IN THE EVENT THAT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY BECOMES
NECESSARY. MUCH COOLER WITH CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS MONDAY...NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT DRY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
OVER THE PANHANDLES BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM AND EASTERN CO BY WEDNESDAY. UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO...AS LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN UP AND ALLOW FOR
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. NEXT COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ALONE FOR NOW ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE LOW THIS FAR OUT IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS SEEM TO
BE BACKING OFF FROM ANY PRECIP WITH THE 12Z RUN AND SLOWING DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN REGION
LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW IN THE MODELS IN HANDLING THIS
NEXT SYSTEM. WILL JUST LEAVE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW.
SCHNEIDER
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LESSEN SUNDAY INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE WEEK. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AROUND THE MIDDLE TO
END OF NEXT WEEK...WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS MAY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THAT TIME.
SCHNEIDER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
24/08
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