119  
FXUS64 KAMA 282051  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
QUITE A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL SET UP AS WE GO  
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
CONUS INTO CANADA, A BUILDING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE CENTER OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH COASTAL UPPER LEVEL LOWS IN THE  
NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND OVER JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL  
PROVIDE A STALE 500-250 HPA WIND FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND  
WEST TEXAS WITH SOME OF THE 28/12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC  
GUIDANCE HINTING AT WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PERTURBATIONS DEVELOPING  
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. WITH AN UPPER  
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF DRIFTING EAST THROUGHOUT THE  
WEEK, THIS WILL ESTABLISH A SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH  
WEAK, IT WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH SOME OF THE  
LATEST GEFS/SREF PWAT ANOMALIES OF +1 TO +2 S.D. OVER THE  
PANHANDLES. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE  
WESTERN AREAS ON MONDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION  
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BY THE UP AND COMING  
WEEKEND, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND BE MORE LIMITED  
TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN THE GULF  
SHIFTS WELL TO THE EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC IN-CONJUNCTION WITH  
THE NORTHERN STREAM BLOCK BEGINNING TO DECOMPOSE BY NEXT WEEKEND.  
WITH LITTLE TO NO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL  
LIKELY BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. MODEL QPF DO VARY AS EXPECTED WITH  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH UPDATES TO THE FORECAST AS  
CAMS AND OTHER HI-RES MODELS BEGIN TO INGEST THE LATEST DATA.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
MECCARIELLO  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
AMARILLO TX 51 82 55 82 58 / 5 10 5 10 20  
BEAVER OK 50 83 54 84 57 / 0 10 10 10 20  
BOISE CITY OK 48 78 50 80 53 / 5 20 20 20 30  
BORGER TX 55 85 57 84 61 / 0 10 10 10 20  
BOYS RANCH TX 50 83 54 82 58 / 5 20 10 20 20  
CANYON TX 51 83 54 83 57 / 5 10 5 10 20  
CLARENDON TX 53 84 58 83 60 / 5 5 5 10 20  
DALHART TX 48 80 52 81 55 / 5 20 20 20 30  
GUYMON OK 50 82 54 83 56 / 0 10 10 20 20  
HEREFORD TX 50 81 53 82 57 / 5 20 5 20 20  
LIPSCOMB TX 50 85 55 83 59 / 0 5 10 10 20  
PAMPA TX 51 82 54 80 58 / 0 5 5 10 20  
SHAMROCK TX 53 86 56 85 61 / 5 0 5 10 20  
WELLINGTON TX 55 87 57 86 62 / 5 0 5 10 20  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
89/29  
 
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