009  
FXUS64 KAMA 261704  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1204 PM CDT THU APR 26 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 18Z TAFS:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MAIN  
CONCERN WILL BE THE STRONG WIND SPEEDS TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AROUND 00Z. EVENTUALLY WIND SPEEDS  
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.  
 
GUERRERO  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1100 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018/  
 
UPDATE...  
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  
WINDS ARE ALREADY AROUND 35 MPH SUSTAINED IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA  
PANHANDLE AND LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD  
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, BUT THE WINDS SHOULD START TO DECREASE BY  
MID AFTERNOON.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018/  
 
UPDATE...  
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO  
WILL SWING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING. AS THIS WAVE  
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IT  
MAY BRING ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED SOME LOW  
CHANCES OF RAIN. ON A SIDE NOTE, STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING  
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES NOW. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE WINDS  
FOR A BRIEF WIND ADVISORY TODAY IN THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE  
PANHANDLES.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018/  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE...ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY AFTER 14Z AND RAMP UP WITH  
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL EASE AFTER  
02Z AND BE AOB 10KTS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN DURING THE DAY BUT  
NOT AFFECT CIGS.  
 
BEAT  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT THU APR 26 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
FOR THIS MORNING, WILL ALLOW FROST ADVISORY FOR THE OK AND PARTS  
OF NRN TX PANHANDLES TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 12Z. OTHERWISE, FOR  
TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH  
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. WIND SPEEDS MAY LOCALLY  
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS FAR WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE TX  
AND NM STATE LINE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND EXPECTED DURATION  
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WIND  
ADVISORY WITH THIS PCKG. WILL DEFER TO NEXT SHIFT FOR CONSIDERATION  
IF CONDITIONS DICTATE. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF  
IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE CLOSE ENUF AND THERE MAY  
BE JUST ENUF MOISTURE TO SPARK OFF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS FAR ERN  
ZONES NEAR THE OK AND TX STATE LINE. THE GREATER THREAT SHOULD BE  
FURTHER EAST INTO OKLAHOMA. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE FOR  
THIS PCKG IN ERN ZONES. THEN FOR TONIGHT, LOWS MAY DIP TO NEAR OR  
BELOW 36 DEGREES AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE OK PANHANDLE AS WELL  
AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND PERHAPS WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN THIS REGION LATE  
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND WILL DEFER THE FINAL  
DECISION TO THE NEXT SHIFT.  
 
A WESTERN UNITED STATES LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ESTABLISH  
ITSELF FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MINOR UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN STATES LARGE TROF  
WILL BE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS DURG THIS TIME PERIOD. ENUF MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN  
PLACE BY SATURDAY NIGHT TO WARRANT SLGT CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS AND  
TSTMS ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES, WITH SLGT  
CHC POPS SPREADING FURTHER EAST TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE AREA  
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERN STATES  
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL EDGE EASTWARD SOME EACH DAY FOR MONDAY  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TREND NOW SUGGESTS MUCH OF OUR FCST AREA  
WILL BE DRY SLOTTED DURG THIS TIME PERIOD WITH THE TSTM THREAT  
SHIFTING EASTWARD TO EITHER PARTS OF THE EASTERN ZONES OR EVEN  
FURTHER EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE, HAVE RE-CONFIGURED  
POPS TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY AS WELL  
AS KEPT VALUES TO NO HIGHER THAN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.  
 
ANDRADE  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY...MOORE...SHERMAN.  
 
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING  
ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.  
 

 
 

 
 
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