360  
FXUS64 KAMA 171129  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
629 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 12Z TAFS:  
 
CYCLE WILL BEGIN IN VFR CONDITIONS BUT CHANCES ARE THESE  
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER ROUND OF  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. CHANCES FOR  
MVFR WILL BE ON THE RISE AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. NOT SURE IF THE  
TERMINALS WILL CATEGORICALLY GO INTO MVFR (WILL BE CLOSE), BUT  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONE WARRANT SOME ATTENTION FOR IMPACTS TO FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
GUERRERO  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 457 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, GIVEN THAT SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE  
DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THE  
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT TIME TO RECOVER TODAY TO ALLOW  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP. EXPECT THE THREAT  
OF ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF  
THE FCST AREA COURTESY OF DAYTIME HEATING, MORE THAN ADEQUATE LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE, AND AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. USED  
AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC POP VALUES. EXPECT  
TSTM COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND  
TONIGHT AS A MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF ROUNDS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IMPINGES ON THE SOUTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE  
DEPICTING THIS PARTICULAR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF FAIRLY WELL  
AND WERE ACCEPTED. LAST EVENING'S 00Z KAMA SOUNDING REVEALED A  
PWAT VALUE APPROACHING 1.40 INCHES. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR VERY  
HEAVY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS LATER TODAY AND  
TONIGHT, WITH FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING A REAL POSSIBILITY. DO  
AGREE WITH WPC DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC. HAVE  
INCORPORATED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR  
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, MUCH LIKE THE PAST FEW  
DAYS, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH  
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HAVE RAISED POPS  
SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT AND ALSO UTILIZED AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING.  
 
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OR HOW LONG RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION AND  
CLOUD COVER LINGER ON SATURDAY, A NEAR REPEAT PERFORMANCE MAY BE  
IN THE OFFING WITH SIMILAR PARAMETERS PRESENT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.  
ALSO, A LOW LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING ALONG  
WITH PASSAGE OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF,  
BOTH OF WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION IF ALL  
ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME. NEVERTHELESS, THE THREAT  
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS  
EXISTS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING  
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS IN  
ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE  
STRONGEST STORMS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH  
FLOODING. WPC DAY 2 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS  
PLAUSIBLE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SITUATION. RAISED POPS FOR  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON  
SUNDAY AND WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS.  
LINGERING SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NO POPS FOR  
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA ON  
TUESDAY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WNW  
TO NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN RESUMING FOR A FEW DAYS. SLGT CHC POPS  
FOR TUESDAY, TUESDAY NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THURSDAY NIGHT  
SEEM PLAUSIBLE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.  
 
ANDRADE  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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