451  
FXUS64 KAMA 221741 AAC  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
1241 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE ISO TO SCT SHRA  
AND TSRA. COVERAGE IS NEVER HIGH ENOUGH OR ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO  
INTRODUCE ANYTHING OTHER THAN VC IN TAFS DURING BEST CHANCE  
PERIODS WHICH WILL BE LATE AFTN THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A WEAK BOUNDARY  
WILL BE IN THE AREA CAUSING WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR ALL SITES  
EVENTUALLY BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF AMA. PRESENCE OF THIS  
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE SOME CHANCE OF A ROUGE SHRA OR TSTM EVEN  
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE PERIODS SHOW IN CURRENT TAFS.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2017/  
 
UPDATE...  
MORNING SHRAS HAVE DISSIPATED FOR NOW, BUT ANTICIPATE  
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISO/SCT STORMS WITH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  
THINK BEST CHANCE WILL ACTUALLY BE A BIT EAST OF WHERE WE SHOWED  
PREVIOUSLY ALONG H85-H7 THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE  
ERN OK PANHANDLE SW THROUGH CANYON. THIS NARROW MOIST TONGUE IN  
JUST EAST OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT HAS TURNED WINDS NRLY ACROSS  
THE NW PANHANDLES AND IS ALSO JUST ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SUBTLE  
UPPER LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  
NAM SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AND IT DEVELOPS BEST  
CONVECTION JUST EAST OF AREA WHERE WE SAW THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.  
BASED ON THIS, BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 ALONG A NARROW BAND ACROSS PORTIONS  
OF ARMSTRONG AND GRAY COUNTY WITH 10-20 POPS MOST AREAS  
OTHERWISE. HOPEFULLY THE STORMS WON'T DISRUPT ANY OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITIES AT PALO DURO CANYON OR OTHER OUTDOOR DESTINATIONS  
TODAY. LOWERED POPS TO 10S IN SOME OF THE WEST WHICH IS IN THE DRY  
SECTOR SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. STILL MAY HAVE SOME MOUNTAIN  
CONVECTION APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS WELL THIS EVENING. WE ARE NOT  
OUTLOOKED CURRENTLY FOR ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY, BUT NOT SURE  
WE CAN COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF PULSE SEVERE STORM. DON'T  
THINK THESE CHANGES WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON HOT HIGH TEMP  
FORECAST AND DIDN'T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THOSE FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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