148  
FXUS64 KAMA 282331  
AFDAMA  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX  
631 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VLIFR TO IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT  
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES  
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME  
NORTH AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 TO  
40 KNOTS AFTER 04Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY.  
 
SCHNEIDER  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 458 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
CURRENT RADAR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLE, WITH STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY MAY BE AN AREA WITH  
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE THREAT  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE FOR  
SHORT TERM UPDATES SEE THE MESOSCALE UPDATE.  
 
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT FOR NOW EXPECT THAT  
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR WILL NOT BE SEVERE AS BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING  
WILL BE TO THE EAST.  
 
WITH THE LOW OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAINLY  
ACROSS THE OK AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES, EXPECTED MODERATE TO  
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE. ALSO TRACKING COLDER AIR ACROSS THE  
NORTHWESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE KEEPING  
THINGS VERY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AIR  
AND GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BOTTOM OUT NEAR FREEZING  
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. BUT PRECIPITATION ALOFT HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF  
FALLING AS SNOW. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL  
ACCUMULATE AND THE TIME FRAME FOR THIS SNOWFALL. THERE IS  
DIFFICULTY IN THE FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED AND  
WHETHER TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER NEAR FREEZING LONG ENOUGH FOR  
APPRECIABLE ACCUMULATIONS. NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE  
ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE AS CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH.  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE OK PANHANDLE, AND IN THE 50S TO  
LOWER 60S FOR THE TX PANHANDLE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW  
RETURNS AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT THE AREA  
NEXT WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO  
PUT CERTAINTY INTO THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, THE  
PATTERN FAVORS THE RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE PANHANDLES  
STARTING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL IRON OUT THE DETAILS OF  
THE SIGNIFICANCE AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES THE NEAR TERM.  
 
WEBER  
 
MESOSCALE UPDATE...  
   
.SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHAT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
 
 
* SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEMS IS AGAIN KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR. SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS  
HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS BEEN AND  
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL. AT THE SURFACE, VERY STABLE AIR  
HAS INVADED THE PANHANDLES WITH ALL CONVECTION TO THIS POINT  
CERTAINLY OF THE ELEVATED VARIETY.  
 
* MESOSCALE (EASTERN PANHANDLES): GENERALLY ABOUT 1000-1500 J/KG OF  
MUCAPE HAVE BEEN REALIZED THROUGH THE DAY, HELPED ALONG BY FAIRLY  
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT. MODEL INDICATIONS THOUGH ARE THAT LAPSE  
RATES MAY WEAKEN IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NO  
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MUCAPE EXPECTED. AFTER HAVING NOT SEEN  
MUCH MORE THAN PENNY SIZE HAIL THIS MORNING, IT'S KIND OF TOUGH TO  
BELIEVE WE'LL BE ABLE TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN QUARTERS THIS  
AFTERNOON IN THE LINE OF CONVECTION THAT IS MOVING EAST.  
 
* MESOSCALE (WESTERN PANHANDLES): OF A BIT MORE INTEREST IS THE AREA  
OF CLEARING BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF ONGOING CONVECTION. THE LOW  
LEVEL STABLE AIR MASS IS SHALLOWER IN THE FAR WEST THAN IN THE  
EAST, AND SUNSHINE COULD ERODE ENOUGH OF IT TO ALLOW FOR AN  
INCREASE IN SFC-BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON (SOMETHING  
BEING SEEN IN NM ALREADY). DUE TO EXCEPTIONAL MID LEVEL COOLING  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR LOW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN DEAF SMITH  
COUNTY FROM THE HRRR AND OTHER CAMS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF AROUND  
1200 J/KG MLCAPE WITH T/TD OF ONLY 57/54. ANY SEVERE CONCERN THAT  
DEVELOPS OUT WEST WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN 2 TIERS  
OF COUNTIES FROM ABOUT 6-9 PM AS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT  
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE ANY FURTHER EAST. THREATS FROM THIS  
CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY BE WIND AND HAIL, BUT AGAIN THIS IS ALL  
QUITE CONDITIONAL.  
 
SIMPSON  
 
AVIATION...18Z TAFS...SIMPLY PUT, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE  
DIFFICULT. LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT DUE TO  
ENTER THE REGION WILL SWITCH WINDS AT KDHT & KGUY TO A NORTHERLY  
DIRECTION AFT 29/02Z. WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE  
WINDS AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS, WITH THE  
STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT KGUY.  
 
BIEDA  
 

 
   
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
TX...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
29/11  
 
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