325
FXUS64 KSHV 240902
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
402 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
DISCUSSION
TODAYS WEATHER LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY...WITH PLENTY MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE GULF. THIS COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WITH YESTERDAYS SCATTERED SHOWERS TAKING THE EDGE OFF
THE HOT TEMPS LATE IN THE DAY...THIS MORNINGS TEMPS OFF TO A
SLIGHTLY COOLER START. BUT DO NOT THINK TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER THAN WEDNESDAYS READINGS...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR THE EXTENT MOS IS PREDICTING. ALSO...MOS POPS MUCH TOO HIGH
SOUTHERN AREAS AND COULD BE THE REASON FOR THE PREDICTED UPPER 80S.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER
REGION AND STRENGTHEN...PROVIDING PLENTY SUBSIDENCE AND HOT AIR.
MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COULD REACH THE CENTURY
MARK THIS WEEKEND. THEN...TOWARDS THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
PERIOD...GFS HINTING AT THE SYSTEM BREAKING DOWN. WILL BRING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS GRADUALLY BACK TO ALL OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD PEAK ON MONDAY...THEN A DECREASE TOWARD THE STILL HOT
JULY NORMALS BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT ADVISORYS MAY BE NEEDED BY THIS
WEEKEND...AS PREDICTED HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE AORUND 105 IN
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SLIGHTLY MORE
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION AS
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. RIGHT NOW...KEEPING AN EYE ON PATCHY IFR
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS...CURRENTLY AFFECTING
LFK. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...THINK THAT
SHV...GGG AND TYR WILL EXPERIENCE ONLY INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS
BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH AROUND 15Z. ALSO
KEEPING AN EYE ON VISIBILITY ISSUES AT MLU...WHERE PATCHY FOG HAS
BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP. EXPECT VISIBILITY TO FALL AS LOW AS 1SM BY
SUNRISE...BEFORE IMPROVING RAPIDLY AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. CONVECTION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
STILL POSSIBLE ELD AND TXK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LIFTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL
CONTINUES TO RIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF...WHICH WILL FUEL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING TYR...GGG...LFK...AND
POSSIBLY SHV. /18/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 96 74 97 75 99 / 20 20 10 10 10
MLU 95 73 96 73 99 / 20 20 20 20 10
DEQ 95 71 96 71 99 / 20 20 10 10 10
TXK 96 74 97 74 99 / 20 20 10 10 10
ELD 95 72 96 73 99 / 20 20 20 10 10
TYR 97 74 98 74 98 / 30 20 10 10 10
GGG 97 74 97 74 98 / 20 20 10 10 10
LFK 95 73 96 73 97 / 50 20 20 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
14/18
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