655  
FXUS64 KSHV 212315  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
615 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017  
   
AVIATION
 
 
STILL DEALING WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS THIS HOUR AND THEREFORE MADE  
MENTION OF VCSH FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THESE  
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE  
EVENING HOURS. CROSS SECTIONS OVERNIGHT AND LOW LEVEL PRESSURE  
FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY  
LAYER MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL  
MORNINGS ACROSS OUR TERMINAL AIRSPACE AND THIS COULD DIRECTLY  
EFFECT WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT  
ACROSS MANY TERMINALS. DID AT LEAST TEMPO THESE CONDITIONS  
OVERNIGHT AT THE TYR/GGG/LFK AND SHV TERMINALS WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL. ANY MVFR/IFR  
CEILINGS POST SUNRISE ON FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND/OR SCATTER  
OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  
 
13  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 401 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
AN AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS HAS DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
DEEP EAST TEXAS DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND A WEAK MID LEVEL  
DISTURBANCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE  
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN LA THIS EVENING. BRIEF  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS SOME  
AREAS COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH. FARTHER  
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION, ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS  
DEVELOPED, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF EAST  
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO  
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  
 
RIDGING ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON  
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE  
REGION, WITH POPS ONLY CONFINED TO EXTREME SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL  
LA ALONG A DEPARTING SHEAR AXIS. A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO  
DEVELOP ALONG THAT SHEAR AXIS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING NEAR  
THE GULF COAST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE W  
TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BENEATH A RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY. THIS WILL GIVE THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE REGION A CHANCE OF  
AFTERNOON RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 
THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL MOVE ENE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON  
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE  
INTO OUR REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES  
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO  
COOL BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT.  
UNTIL THEN, EXPECT HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO HANG ON ACROSS THE  
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S. /20/  
 
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 73 94 72 93 / 20 10 0 20  
MLU 72 94 71 92 / 0 20 10 20  
DEQ 71 91 69 91 / 0 10 0 10  
TXK 72 92 71 92 / 10 10 0 10  
ELD 70 92 69 91 / 0 10 0 20  
TYR 73 92 72 92 / 20 10 0 10  
GGG 73 92 71 93 / 20 10 0 10  
LFK 73 92 72 92 / 20 10 10 20  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
20/13  
 
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