198  
FXUS64 KSHV 290254  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
954 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS  
WILL BE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY  
CLOUDY. COULD SEE SOME RAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST  
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WHERE SURFACE  
BOUNDARY RESIDES. /06/  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017/  
 
AVIATION...  
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT  
6 HOURS OR SO BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOPING/MOVING  
NORTHWARD FROM THE SE TX/S LA COAST AND EFFECTING OUR TERMINAL  
AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT. BELIEVE THIS WILL COME IN AS MOSTLY MVFR  
CEILINGS WITH HEIGHTS NEAR 1-2KFT BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME  
IFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
ON WED. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG BUT WITH A DEVELOPING  
INVERSION OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE WINDS DECOUPLE SLIGHTLY. STRONG  
SSE WINDS WILL RETURN WITH EARNEST ON WED WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF  
25KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT THE MLU/ELD TERMINALS.  
 
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF A  
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO  
WEAKEN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR OR  
JUST AFTER 12Z WED. MADE MENTION OF TEMPO TSRA AT THE TYR/GGG  
TERMINALS FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON WED JUST IN CASE THIS  
CONVECTION MOVING OUR WAY STAYS IN TACT. OTHERWISE, WE AWAIT ON  
DAYTIME HEATING AND REORGANIZATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY  
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM THE LFK/SHV/TXK TERMINAL EASTWARD IN  
THE 21Z-00Z PERIOD AND ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ELD/MLU  
TERMINALS JUST BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE. /13/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FOUR STATE  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS  
BOUNDARY THAT REACHES WEST INTO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
OVER THE PAN HANDLE AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL  
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED OVER TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION  
TONIGHT AND STRONGER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE  
WINDS ADVISORY FOR THE INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS DURING THE DAY  
WEDNESDAY FROM MID MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING. OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO MOVES  
EAST SENDING DISTURBANCES ACROSS A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE  
SURFACE LOW AND THE WARM FRONT REACHING EAST, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARIES.  
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST  
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AREA EXPECTED AS MOISTURE,  
INSTABILITY AND LIFT ARE ENHANCED. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL  
SEE SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT AS A WIDE BAND  
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH  
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND ENDING FROM  
WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AND ON THE SURFACE WILL PREVAIL INTO  
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVING  
FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST WHILE MOISTURE  
FEEDS BACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES RETURNING SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH A NEAR REPEAT  
OF THIS MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM. /06/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 67 82 63 75 / 20 60 80 30  
MLU 65 85 66 78 / 20 20 90 70  
DEQ 63 75 56 68 / 50 80 60 40  
TXK 65 78 60 71 / 40 70 80 40  
ELD 63 82 63 76 / 20 40 90 60  
TYR 68 78 57 70 / 60 80 40 20  
GGG 68 78 60 72 / 40 70 70 30  
LFK 69 80 62 76 / 20 70 70 20  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ070-  
071.  
 
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ001-  
002-010.  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ096-  
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165.  
 

 
 

 
 
06/13  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab LA Page
The Nexlab TX Page
The Nexlab AR Page
The Nexlab OK Page Main Text Page