848
FXUS64 KSHV 081602
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1002 AM CST SUN NOV 8 2009
DISCUSSION
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. DEWPOINTS RESPONDING A LITTLE STRONGER TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER AS AC DECK HAS MOVED WELL
NORTH ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FEEL
LIKE WE CAN FORE GO POP MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AS 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE 3KFT UNTIL YOU HIT THE AC
DECK. HIGH CLOUDS MAY HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST
MAX TEMPS TODAY UNTOUCHED.
UPDATED FORECAST COMING SHORTLY...13.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING 18Z TAF
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DEEP LYR MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY THIS
MORNING...AS MOISTURE SPREADS E FROM THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF AN OPEN
TROUGH DRIFTING E OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION. CAN/T RULE OUT BKN
CIGS BETWEEN 3-3.5KFT THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM
THE RED RIVER REGION OF EXTREME NE TX INTO ADJACENT SW AR...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT AS LIMITED HEATING COMMENCES.
ADDITIONAL LOW VFR CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS E TX AS WELL...BUT NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE AC SHIELD ABOVE 14KFT WILL
PERSIST TODAY/TONIGHT...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM W TO E MONDAY
MORNING. CAN/T RULE OUT 3-5SM VSBYS ONCE AGAIN AROUND/PRECEDING
DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH MVFR CIGS/WIDELY SCT -SHRA POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT NWD
AHEAD OF HURRICANE IDA...PROGGED TO TRACK NNE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 55 70 55 74 / 10 20 40 10 10
MLU 74 53 64 53 71 / 0 30 40 50 30
DEQ 75 51 72 49 72 / 0 10 20 10 10
TXK 74 54 70 52 73 / 0 10 20 10 10
ELD 75 53 67 53 73 / 0 10 30 20 20
TYR 74 55 73 54 74 / 10 30 30 10 10
GGG 75 55 72 53 74 / 10 20 30 10 10
LFK 75 56 72 54 76 / 10 30 30 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
13/15
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