455  
FXUS66 KMFR 282144  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
244 PM PDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SHORT TERM
 
A SEASONAL AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR  
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ABOUT THE ONLY FLUCTUATION ON THIS THEM IS  
THE BEHAVIOR OF THE MARINE LAYER FOR OREGON WEST SIDE VALLEYS. IT  
APPEARS THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT ONLY THE  
COAST AND THE UMPQUA BASIN WILL EXPERIENCE NIGHT TIME AND MORNING  
CLOUDINESS THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 
SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE CASCADES IN  
RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THE INSTABILITY  
SWEEPS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT TO KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THIS  
INSTABILITY IS VERY MINOR ACCORDING TO THE MODELS SO HAVE ONLY  
GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT THIS TIME.  
   
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH  
TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL. IT  
WILL CERTAINLY PREVENT ANY SORT OF HEAT WAVE FROM DEVELOPING.  
THERE MAY BE SOME INSTABILITY AS THOSE TROUGHS PASS BY WELL TO THE  
NORTH. TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING OF ANY SORT OF CHANCES FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...28/18Z TAF CYCLE
 
MVFR CEILINGS IN THE UMPQUA AND  
COQUILLE VALLEYS WILL CONTINE TO ERODE TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS. STRATUS IS  
EXPECTED TO SURGE INLAND AGAIN INTO THE COQUILLE VALLEY BY 04Z THIS  
EVENING AND INTO THE UMPQUA VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR IS  
EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COAST.  
SANDLER  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 300 PM WEDNESDAY, 28 JUNE 2017
 
 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP SEAS ARE LIKELY THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH AT  
THE COAST EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT FEATURES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE  
HIGHEST SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE SEBASTIAN  
BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO SATURDAY THEN BUILD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBILITY OF  
GALES BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE  
FORECAST IS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS MAY REMAIN STEEP SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO OR AT  
LEAST SOUTH OF CAPE SEBASTIAN THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  
JBL  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...NONE.  
 
CA...NONE.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM PDT  
THURSDAY FOR PZZ356.  
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ356-376.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY  
FOR PZZ350-370-376.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ376.  
 

 
 
KRS/KRS/JBL  
 
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