568  
FXUS66 KMFR 161000  
AFDMFR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR  
300 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2018  
   
DISCUSSION
 
16/00Z NAM/GFS/EC IN.  
 
QUITE THE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK OVER THE CWA ON SUNDAY, WITH  
SEVERAL THOUSAND RECORDED LIGHTNING DOWNSTRIKES AND NUMEROUS FIRE  
STARTS. THIS ROUND OF LIGHTNING HAS ENDED AND SKIES ARE CLEARING  
OVER THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MARINE STRATUS ALONG THE  
COAST.  
 
A FLAT RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING A RETURN  
OF MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, ONE  
LAST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY, AND  
THAT MAY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS TO SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES. THE MODELS ARE ALSO  
SUGGESTING THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND AREAS EAST COULD SEE SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS. NOTHING LIKE THE SUNDAY OUTBREAK, BUT ANY LIGHTNING  
STRIKES BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE FIRE STARTS.  
 
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY EVENING  
AND THEN IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. IT WILL  
STILL BE HOT INLAND. MONDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OVER THE  
UMPQUA BASIN WITH HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
INCREASING MARINE INFLUENCES WILL COOL THE HIGHS TO AROUND 10  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OVER THE REMAINDER  
OF THE WEST SIDE, HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND  
THE EAST SIDE WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PICKING THE  
HOTTEST DAY IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT WITH NO STRONG TRENDS, BUT  
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OVER INLAND WEST SIDE  
LOCATIONS APART FROM THE UMPQUA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION...FOR THE 16/06Z TAFS...ALONG THE COAST
 
LIFR/IFR  
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH  
TOMORROW MORNING AS A STRONG MARINE LAYER DEVELOPS. INLAND, EXPECT  
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,  
SEVERAL FIRES HAVE POPPED UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST OREGON/ NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA AREA, AND MAY LIMIT VISIBILITY IN THE VCTY. MONDAY  
AFTERNOON, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST OF THE  
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES IN KLAMATH AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES AND  
IN SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA. -CC  
 

 
   
MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 16 JULY 2018
 
A FRESH STEEP  
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED  
TO BE WEAK NEAR SHORE, EXCEPT FOR NORTH WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY  
STRENGTH NEAR CAPE BLANCO AND PORT ORFORD. LATER TODAY, NORTH WINDS AND  
SEAS WILL THEN TREND HIGHER. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.  
THEN, WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON WEDENSDAY. GALES AND VERY  
STEEP HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF  
CAPE BLANCO, MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM SHORE, AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS  
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THESE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STEEP TO VERY STEEP  
SEAS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. -CC/CZS  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 AM PDT MONDAY 16 JULY 2018
 
HEAT  
WILL CONTINUE, WITH VARIATIONS OF A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS. THE AREA SHOULD ALSO STAY DRY FOR THE AT LEAST THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN SISKIYOU COUNTY, MODOC  
COUNTY, AND NORTHERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ023.  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ024-026.  
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ024-026.  
 
CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ080-081.  
 
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL  
5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY  
FOR PZZ376.  
 

 
 
15/15/11  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab OR Page
The Nexlab CA Page Main Text Page