972
FXUS66 KPQR 081657
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
857 AM PST SUN NOV 8 2009
SYNOPSIS
ONE MORE DAY OF COOL SHOWERY WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TODAY...WITH A THREAT OF
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
THEN A RATHER STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH MORE RAIN...MOUNTAIN
SNOW...AND BRISK WINDS. ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED MID WEEK AND
LATE IN THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY AS RADAR AND MODELS SHOW
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE SHIFTING INLAND. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME TENDENCY
FOR THE SHOWERS TO BEGIN TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONLY ONE
LIGHTNING STRIKE OFF OF NORTH BEND HAS BEEN DETECTED SINCE 15Z BUT
THE COLD TOPPED CLOUDS OFFSHORE SHOW THAT THE THREAT SHOWN IN MODELS
REMAINS TODAY. HEAVY SHOWERS ON RADAR MOVING INTO THE N OREGON
CASCADES SUPPORTS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE S WA/N
OREGON CASCADES TODAY. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
AXIS OF THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BEING FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COAST UP
THROUGH THE S WA/N OREGON CASCADES.
THE SHOWERS DECREASE RAPIDLY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHES. IT MOVES THROUGH MON AND EARLY MON NIGHT WITH MORE
RAIN...SNOW UP IN THE CASCADES...AND BRISK WINDS. THE COAST MAY GET
CLOSE TO HIGH WIND BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY JUST BELOW...AND ANALYZE
FURTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE ABOVE THE
PASSES LATER TONIGHT AND ON MON...THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR THE PASSES
MON NIGHT AND TUE. IT IS POSSIBLE THE HIGHER CASCADES OR THE SKI
RESORTS COULD GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY TOTALS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AT THE
PASSES. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT
DO NOT LOOK AS WIDESPREAD OR INTENSE AS THIS WEEKEND. RW/TOLLESON
LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A COOL UPPER TROUGH DROPPING
SE THROUGH THE REGION WED AND THU. THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERY WEATHER
WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FT. EXTENDED MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE WEATHER FROM LATE THU INTO AT LEAST
FRI MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER PAC SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKELY FRI NIGHT AND SAT. RW
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...MVFR MAINLY IN THE
NORTH VALLEY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY. SHOWERS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...AREAS OF MVFR THIS MORNING...BECOMING
GENERALLY VFR BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL AND LIGHTNING AGAIN TODAY. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. WEAGLE
MARINE...COASTAL BUOYS REPORTING 14-17 FT SEAS THIS MORNING
BELOW
OUR HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO DECIDED TO CANCEL HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
SEAS SHOULD DROP TO 10-12 FT BY TUE MORNING. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR
GALES TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THIS UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
WEAGLE/WOLFE
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA/OR...GALE WARNING FOR CAPE SHOALWATER TO FLORENCE OUT 60
NM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS CAPE SHOALWATER TO
FLORENCE OUT 60 NM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS CAPE SHOALWATER
TO FLORENCE OUT 60 NM THIS AFTERNOON.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES TODAY.
MORE WEATHER INFORMATION ONLINE AT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON FROM
THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS COMMONLY
REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
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