924  
FXUS66 KPQR 282112  
AFDPQR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR  
210 PM PDT WED JUN 28 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
FOR SUNNY SKIES AFTER PERHAPS BRIEF MORNING CLOUDS. OVER THE WEEKEND  
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY FOR THE  
SEASONABLE PATTERN OF MORNING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND  
THEN CLOSE TO NORMAL THEREAFTER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
 
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY  
SLOW TO BREAK UP TODAY, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS ACTIVE  
MIXING/CLEARING NOW UNDERWAY. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
THE TRANQUIL SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS AN  
UPPER RIDGES APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY AND MOVES OVERHEAD FRIDAY,  
THE MARINE LAYER THINS FOR CONSIDERABLY MORE SUNSHINE AND VALLEY  
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID 80S. WESTERLY FLOW  
RETURNS SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK, ALBEIT DRY, SHORTWAVE.  
THIS SHOULD DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY, FOR  
THE TYPICAL SUNNY AFTER MORNING CLOUDS PATTERN THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES INDICATE SOME LOWER-END CAPE (250-750 J/KG)  
OVER THE CASCADES DURING MAX HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND  
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE  
ELEVATED TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CASCADES, IS NOT OUT  
OF THE QUESTION, BUT ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO BREAK THE CAP WOULD  
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN, AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CWA.  
DRB  
   
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME  
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRING MARINE  
CLOUDS TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR  
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN ON THE NORTH COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  
ANOTHER, WEAKER IMPULSE WILL BRING CLOUDS BACK TO THE NORTH COAST  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME  
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ON THE NORTH COAST. GOING INTO MIDWEEK, EXPECT  
LESS AND LESS MORNING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO STAY AROUND  
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY INCREASING MIDWEEK. -MCCOY  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
TODAY IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AS TOPS HAVE BEEN 040-045  
AND BASES NEAR 015-025. TIMING OF CLEARING INLAND TODAY SIMILAR  
TO TUESDAY AT MOST SITES. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HAVE THE BEST  
CHANCE OF MUCH CLEARING AT THE COAST. MVFR CIGS RETURN INLAND  
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE  
NORTH AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS, WITH POSSIBLY  
LESS COVERAGE IN THE WEST SIDE OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. CLOUDS  
CLEAR BACK TO NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST  
CHANCE OF CLEARING AT THE COAST IN THE SOUTH.  
 
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR  
CONDITIONS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, THEN MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE  
TONIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MORE VFR  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PT  

 
   
MARINE
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN, AS WE WILL  
SEE RATHER PERSISTENT HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE NE PACIFIC, WITH  
THERMAL LOW PRES STAYING WELL SOUTH OVER NW CALIFORNIA. GRADIENTS  
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG, SO NORTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY  
STAYING UNDER 20 KT. WINDS WILL BE LESS THURSDAY THAN TODAY,  
INCREASE A LITTLE FRIDAY, DECREASE SATURDAY, THEN INCREASE AGAIN  
POSSIBLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
WAVE MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 1-2 FT BELOW THE OBSERVED VALUES  
THIS MORNING BUT ARE CLOSER THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH SHORT  
PERIODS OF ONLY 7 OR 8 SECONDS, LEADING TO CHOPPY SEAS. WILL  
MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ISSUED  
EARLIER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT SEE IF  
WE NEED TO EXTEND IT ANY FURTHER. WE SHOULD SEE SEAS DECREASING  
LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PT  

 
   
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
OR...NONE.  
WA...NONE.  
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS  
EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO  
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 7 PM  
THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM 8 AM TO  
11 AM PDT THURSDAY.  
 

 
 

 
 
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND  
 
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON  
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THIS AREA IS  
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
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