047
FGUS71 KBGM 291326 CCA
ESFBGM
NYC007-011-015-017-023-025-053-065-067-077-097-099-101-105-107-
109-123-PAC015-069-079-103-115-127-131-042000-
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
354 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2024
..VARIABLE FLOOD RISK ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA
THIS IS THE SEVENTH (AND FINAL) EDITION OF THE SERIES OF
REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER
TO SPRING TRANSITION SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A
GENERAL OVERVIEW OF THE RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL (NOT FLASH
FLOODING) ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH APRIL 11, 2024. REMEMBER THAT PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
THE MOST IMPORTANT DETERMINING FACTOR TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT AND
SEVERITY OF FLOODING IN OUR AREA.
..SUMMARY
THE RIVER AND LAKE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NWS BINGHAMTON
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA RANGES FROM SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER DELAWARE BASIN TO BELOW NORMAL IN THE CHEMUNG, FINGER LAKES
AND OSWEGO DRAINAGE, WITH AN AVERAGE RISK FOR THE UPPER
SUSQUEHANNA REGION.
..CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 28
RECENT PRECIPITATION: ABOVE NORMAL EAST HALF AND BELOW NORMAL
WEST HALF. WEEKLY DEPARTURES WERE SHOWING ALMOST 150% OF NORMAL
RAINFALL IN THE UPPER DELAWARE BASIN TO ABOUT 70 TO 90% OF NORMAL
IN THE CHEMUNG BASIN WITH 95-110% OF NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
SNOW COVER: ABOUT AVERAGE. THERE IS GENERALLY NO SNOW COVER IN
CNY OR NEPA EXCEPT FOR SOME COVER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
UPPER SUSQUEHANNA HEADWATERS AND WESTERN MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT: ABOUT AVERAGE. THE WATER EQUIVALENT OF
REMAINING SNOW PACK IS HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT.
STREAMFLOW + LAKE LEVELS: WEEKLY AND MONTHLY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS
WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER DELAWARE AND BELOW NORMAL IN THE
CHEMUNG AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS. NORMAL FLOWS WERE OBSERVED IN
OTHER BASINS. LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
GROUNDWATER: GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL STORAGE.
RIVER ICE: NORMAL. NO ICE IS OBSERVED ON AREA RIVERS.
SOIL STATES: WETTER THAN AVERAGE EASTERN BASINS AND NEAR NORMAL
WEST.
METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGIC FORECAST OUTLOOK...
FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS:
THE OFFICIAL 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TRENDING FROM ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE OUTLOOK. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A LOW-MEDIUM (30%-50%) PROBABILITY OF TOTAL
RAINFALL EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OVER THE OUTLOOK PERIOD AND LESS THAN
10% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 4 INCHES.
LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS:
THE ENSEMBLE OF RIVER FORECAST SYSTEM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LESS THAN
A 10% CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING DEVELOPING DURING THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS. HISTORICALLY, THE HYDROCLIMATOLOGY OF THE REGION INDICATES
AN AVERAGE PROBABILITY OF 30% TO 50% FOR RIVER FLOODING DURING
EARLY APRIL. CURRENTLY, THE OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC MODELING
INDICATES LESS THAN A 20% PROBABILITY OF FLOODING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF APRIL, WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE OF A BELOW NORMAL RISK IN MOST
AREAS.
..IN CONCLUSION
WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD, HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 2 WEEKS AND THE SNOW
COVER GENERALLY GONE, THE OVERALL RISK OF FLOODING IS LOW.
IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM DOES HAPPEN TO DEVELOP...THEN THE
MOST FAVORED AREA TO POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE FLOODING WOULD BE IN
THE UPPER DELAWARE BASIN AND NORTH BRANCH SUSQUEHANNA HEADWATERS
WHERE THE LONG TERM MOISTURE BUDGET IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
IF CONDITIONS CHANGE OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS, FLOOD WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY. THIS IS THE FINAL OUTLOOK
FOR THE 2024 WINTER/SPRING SEASON. STATEMENTS WILL RESUME IN
JANUARY 2025.
JAB
CORRECTED A DATE
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