521  
FXUS61 KCTP 230025  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
825 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP US FAIR THROUGH MONDAY. DEVELOPING LOW  
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING  
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, AN UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SOME HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING ONLY THIN CIRRUS TODAY WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPS PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 60S WITH DRY CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN TO THE  
TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE NE HALF OF CWA.  
 
QUIET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. HIGHS WILL  
BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY WITH A SE WIND BEING THE HARBINGER  
OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN THAT WILL FOLLOW FOR MIDWEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CRAWL EASTWARD UNDER THE REX BLOCK,  
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST LIGHT SHOWERS TO REACH SW PA  
BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE A BIT MILDER, IN THE  
40S MOST LOCALES, THOUGH DRIER AIR AND LESS CLOUDS IN THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST MAY BRING LOWS DOWN INTO THE  
UPPER 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A BUILDING RIDGE JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL SLOW THE  
FORWARD PROGRESSION OF A COMPACT AND WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW  
DRIFTING NORTHEAST FROM TN VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON  
TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY EXTENDING SOUTH FROM  
HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE  
SYSTEM EVOLUTION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE 22/12Z GFS/EC/CMC  
SHOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE PRECIP PATTERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH  
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT  
TOWARD DRIER WX BY SUNDAY.  
 
WET WEATHER WILL REPLACE THE 3-DAY STRETCH OF SUNNY, PLEASANT  
AND INCREASINGLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN  
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOULD  
TAPER OFF IN MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY  
PERIOD INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF  
RAIN SOMETIME FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.  
 
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH  
TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY WILL DRIFT  
SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENSURING VFR CONDITIONS  
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT  
PICK UP A BIT ON MONDAY. BUKFIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL  
BE SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTS OF 15-20KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE  
VICINITY OF KJST/KAOO, WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER NORTH  
AND EAST.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUE...RAIN/LOW CIGS BECOMING LIKELY.  
 
WED...AM RAIN/LOW CIGS LIKELY, THEN IMPROVING.  
 
THU...AM LOW CIGS POSSIBLE W MTNS.  
 
FRI...PM SHOWERS/CIG REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEST.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RXR  
NEAR TERM...RXR  
SHORT TERM...RXR  
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL  
AVIATION...FITZGERALD  
 
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