203
FXUS61 KCTP 050050
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
850 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE STATE
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RIGHT ALONG
THE MASON-DIXON LINE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE
COMING WEEK...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS THROUGHOUT
PENNSYLVANIA.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
DEWPOINTS VERY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR /49-50F/...SO RADAR
ECHOES OVER ERN OH AND FAR SWRN PA ARE MAINLY ALOFT AND ARE
DIMINISHING AS EXPECTED AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. DO NOT EXPECT
ANYONE TO GET MEASURABLE RAIN OUT OF THIS...BUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
MIN TEMPS IN THE NORTH WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...WITH SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE...UPPER 40S AND
50S WILL BE COMMON WHICH IS REMARKABLE FOR JULY.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
A SHEARED OUT 500 MB TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE
LOW CENTER TRACKS SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THE CENTRAL APPS BY
LATE AFTN. THIS WILL BRING SLGT TO CHC POPS TO SOUTHERN AREAS
WITH THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SEEING LITTLE TO NO PRECIP.
THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS WILL BE CLOUDIEST AND COOLEST WITH THE
HIGHEST /LOW CHC/ POPS CWA-WIDE...LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS NEAR 70F.
WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE OVER THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE
PARTIAL SUNSHINE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE JUST
SOME CLDS.
FOR MONDAY...A DECENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT NOT A LOT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THUS BEST CHC FOR RAIN WILL BE N PA.
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BEST CHC AGAIN
N PA...WITH A ANOTHER TROUGH.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NE PART
OF THE CWA...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW...AS
PATTERN GOES BACK TO AN TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PART
OF THE COUNTRY.
WED LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A DECENT DAY.
WARMER ON THU...THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM WITH THE
WARM ADVECTION...BUT BEST CHC MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF PA.
GFS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND STRONGER WITH COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY...
THAN HPC...SO TRIED TO SLOW IT DOWN A LITTLE. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARM DAYS. SOME SHOWERS COULD PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY. IF FRONT IS AS FAST AND STRONG AS THE GFS...
THEN SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE A PROBLEM.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH TONIGHT WILL KEEP MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING OF SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG POSSIBLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL DOMINATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF PA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PENNSYLVANIA. MAY ALSO SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS SLIDE IN TO SOUTHERN TIER ON SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...POSSIBLE MVFR SOUTHERN TIER...OTHERWISE VFR.
MON THRU THU...VFR.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...ONDREJIK/DEVOIR
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