680  
FXUS61 KCTP 192102  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
402 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES AND  
LAUREL HIGHLANDS. THANKSGIVING WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH  
TEMPERATURES TRENDING MILDER TO ABOVE AVERAGE INTO TUESDAY  
BEFORE COOLING OFF TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC  
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW  
FREEZING THIS EVENING AND INTO THE 20S OVERNIGHT SHOULD EASILY  
ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE OVER THE NW ALLEGHENIES AND LAUREL  
HIGHLANDS. STAYED CLOSE TO HIRES ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR TOTAL SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4" WITH LOCALIZED 4-6" IN THE PERENNIAL LAKE  
EFFECT BELT NORTH OF ROUTE 6. ELSEWHERE EXPECT C-1" WITH PERHAPS  
A BIT MORE (UP TO 2") ON THE RIDGES AND SUMMITS OVER THE LAUREL  
HIGHLANDS. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S  
INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF PA SHOULD SHIFT/BACK THE  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TRAJECTORY TO MORE OF A WSW-ENE ORIENTATION  
AND FOCUS SNOW SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST NY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES SHOULD DECREASE WITH  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TRENDING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE IN  
THE DAY. MAX TEMPS STILL CHILLY AND FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE  
FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. MIN TEMPS MAY OCCUR EARLY OVER THE  
WESTERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE INTO TUE  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE THE SEASON'S FIRST  
REAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD,  
FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL BUT TRANQUIL WEATHER.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE A  
WEAKENING FRONT SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH BRINGS THE SMALL CHANCE  
OF A SNOW SHOWER TO NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST AND KEEP US MAINLY  
DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A NEW FRONTAL  
SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED AT KBFD AND KJST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH FREQUENT  
LAKE EFFECT AND OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS. KAOO/KUNV WILL BE  
SUSCEPTIBLE TO BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS IN -SHSN BUT EXPECT LOW-END  
VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL. VFR WILL BE THE RULE AT EASTERN TERMINALS.  
WINDS/GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SHIFT DIRECTION TO MORE  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
MON...AM SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLE NW MOUNTAINS.  
 
TUE-WED...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUE NIGHT-AM WED.  
 
THU-FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ004-005.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL  
NEAR TERM...STEINBUGL  
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL  
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU  
AVIATION...STEINBUGL  
 
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