495  
FXUS61 KCTP 201813  
AFDCTP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA  
213 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING  
WARM WEATHER TO PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM  
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. RADAR SHOWS A FEW POPCORN  
SHOWERS ACROSS SW PA AND CAN'T RULE OUT THAT ONE OF THESE  
SHOWERS DRIFTS INTO WESTERN SOMERSET COUNTY FOR THE REMAINDER  
OF THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG  
REDEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES  
FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
RIDGE HOLDING STRONG AGAIN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR  
FOG QUICKLY DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED A SUNNY AND WARM  
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG FORM AGAIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE OVERALL PATTERN HASN'T CHANGED MUCH, THERE IS A GOOD  
OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD, A 590 DAM CLOSED 500 HPA HIGH WILL  
DRIFT SLOWLY OUT OF THE MIDWEST STATES, AND BECOME CENTERED OVER  
WESTERN PA BY LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE GEFS FORECASTS SHOWED THIS FEATURE AS A CLOSED 5880 M RIDGE  
OVER US WITH NEAR +2 SIGMA ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WHICH WILL  
TRANSLATE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPS FROM  
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL WITH  
LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL MONDAY AT THE VERY EARLIEST.  
 
LOWS EARLY EACH MORNING WILL BE CONSISTENTLY IN THE MID AND  
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS, TO LOWER 60S IN  
THE LARGER SE METRO AREAS.  
 
MIN TEMPS MAY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FOR THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO DEEP  
DRY AIR AND A LIGHT N TO NW LLVL FLOW OF DRIER DEWPOINT AIR AT  
THE SFC.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL PRE DAWN HOURS WHEN FOG REFORMS ONLY TO  
DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. LOOK FOR THIS PATTERN  
OF EARLY MORNING FOG TO REPEAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY  
MORNING.  
   
OUTLOOK
 
 
THU-SUN...PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. OTHERWISE  
VFR WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL CLOUDS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ASTRONOMICAL FALL/AUTUMNAL EQUINOX BEGINS AT 4:02 PM FRIDAY  
SEPTEMBER 22, 2017.  
 

 
   
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ROSS  
NEAR TERM...ROSS  
SHORT TERM...ROSS  
LONG TERM...CERU/GARTNER  
AVIATION...ROSS  
CLIMATE...  
 
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