829
FXUS61 KCTP 072018
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
318 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR AND MILD WEATHER
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
SKIES ARE CLEAR TO SCATTERED AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES
OFF TO OUR EAST. SW GRADIENT SHUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A GUSTY
BREEZE DEVELOPING AS THE MORNING INVERSIONS START TO MIX OUT. THIS
WILL LEAD TEMPS TO SPIKE AS THE WIND SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL COLD
AIR. AFTER THE CHILLY START...WE SHOULD RECOVER TO THE 50S ACROSS
THE AREA...OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
THE OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES WITH A
DIMINISHING WIND. THE CHILLIEST AREAS WILL BE OVER SERN PA WHERE
WHERE WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GOING
CALM. ELSEWHERE A LIGHT WEST TO SW FLOW WILL HELP KEEP MINS
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OBSERVED LAST NIGHT.
LOOKS PRETTY UNEVENTFUL OVERALL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS PENN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND WEST WHERE THE GEFS AND SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE MORE THAN SOME PATCHY OF THIN
ALTO CU AND CIRRUS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE NRN MTNS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS WILL BE A HEFTY 10 DEG OR SO ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE
SFC/UPR RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MINS EARLY MONDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 45F WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BALMY MID AUTUMN DAY IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. THE LONE
ELEMENT THAT COULD TRIM TEMPS BY A FEW DEG F WILL BE A POTENTIAL
SHIELD OF HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE/CIRRUS ADVECTING NE THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY FROM TS IDA (AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A COMPACT UPPER JETLET). ALL MODELS (NAM/GFS/EC) AND
GEFS PLUMES SHOW A CHC FOR SHOWERS TUES/TUES NIGHT (CHANGING TO
ISOLATED SHSN ACROSS THE NRN MTNS) AS A FAIRLY SHARP UPPER TROUGH
AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SE FROM THE GLAKES.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITHIN THE
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NCENT US AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SEVERAL DEG ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE PD...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
GUSTY SW FLOW OVER ABOUT THE WESTERN 2/3 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNTIL POSSIBLY MID WEEK WHEN THE
COMBINATION OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...AND MOISTURE
SPREADING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TAKE AIM AT THE EASTERN US.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-MON...VFR.
TUE-WED...BCMG MVFR/IFR IN SHWRS ASSOC WITH FROPA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page