001  
FXUS61 KPHI 270201  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
901 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TOMORROW. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING  
FROM THE WEST WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  
THAT LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO EASTERN CANADA  
ON WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST  
COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST  
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SKIES HAVE CLEARED  
AS LOW- MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE  
ALOFT PULL TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH WILL  
MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, WITH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE  
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST PLACE  
WITH ANY SUSTAINED WIND FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10  
MPH. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK  
AS SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT,  
BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND POSSIBLY RISING A DEGREE OR TWO AS WE  
APPROACH DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS INCREASE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
 
 
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC, SOUTHWEST  
SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.  
SUBSTANTIAL NEAR-SURFACE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A  
MUCH WARMER DAY MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL ABOVE  
AVERAGE VALUES. A PERTURBATION IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL  
FLOW WILL APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY 00Z TUESDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER  
CONTINUING TO INCREASE. HOWEVER, RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS  
AND GENERALLY WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IF ANY  
PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING BEFORE SUNSET. NOTABLY, MODEL GUIDANCE  
HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM FOR DAYS,  
RENDERING CONFIDENCE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE IN THE DETAILS -- EVEN FOR A  
12-24 HOUR FORECAST.  
 
THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME INDICATIONS LIFT MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO  
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE AREA (GENERALLY THE  
APPALACHIANS WESTWARD IN SOUTHERN PA AND ADJACENT MD/VA/WV) BY LATE  
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING  
FACTORS SEEM TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR GENERATING PRECIPITATION IN  
THE CWA BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THUS, REDUCED POPS ON  
MONDAY TO NON-MENTIONABLE LEVELS.  
 
GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY WITH TEMPERATURES IN WARM AIR  
ADVECTION PATTERNS THIS PAST MONTH. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE  
FOR HIGHS BASED ON THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER PRESENT -- OTHERWISE, I  
WOULD HAVE GONE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE AT ALL  
SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST,  
ESPECIALLY IF THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE MOIST AIR ADVECTION IN  
THE 900-700 MB LAYER.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH  
THROUGH THE REGION. SOME WEAK LIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT  
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW  
LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT ISN'T EXACTLY AN  
IMPRESSIVE SET UP FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO  
DEPICT QPF ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IT LOOKS LIKE  
THE BEST CHANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WOULD BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, WHEN WE STILL HAVE A SLIGHT ONSHORE COMPONENT TO  
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS IS THE PERIOD OF GREATEST FOCUS  
AS IT LOOKS LIKE OUR REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM  
SECTOR AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND THE COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SHOULD  
SEE TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, APPROACHING RECORD  
HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY WARM  
BOUNDARY LAYER (RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE WITH  
MODEST CAPE VALUES) AND A MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET  
(RESULTING IN BULK SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 50KT) MEANS THERE IS ONCE  
AGAIN A RISK FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS. THE BIGGEST SOURCE OF  
UNCERTAINTY RIGHT NOW IS THE TIMING, PRIMARILY OF THE COLD FRONT.  
THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOST  
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION, BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING, WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE THE HIGHEST  
RISK AS THE WARMEST CONDITIONS WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH THE BEST  
LIFT. EVEN WITH THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS, THERE REMAINS SOME RISK FOR  
SEVERE STORMS, IT WOULD JUST BE A MORE LIMITED PERIOD.  
 
AS FOR THE HAZARDS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE STRONG  
WINDS. CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE HAIL  
GROWTH REGION, LIMITING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. IF THERE IS  
WIDESPREAD RAIN ON TUESDAY LEADING IN TO THE EVENT, THEN THE RISK  
FOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING COULD INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH BREEZY  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE AT  
LEAST 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A FAST MOVING  
LOW MAY DIG ACROSS THE REGION, THOUGH THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE  
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK.  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH BUILDS SOUTH, KEEPING US IN THE COLD AIR  
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A MODEST WARMING TREND BY  
SUNDAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
VFR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR  
SKIES THROUGH ABOUT 09Z, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS OF 8-15  
KFT EXPECTED AFTER 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISH  
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT WESTERLY OR EVEN  
VARIABLE BY LATE EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW,  
SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS, WITH SOME  
GUSTS AROUND 15-18 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY...SHOULD BEGIN AS VFR, BUT CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO MVFR  
LATER IN THE DAY AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE IN.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, PRIMARILY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH ANY STORMS OR SHOWERS,  
MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT  
SHIFT TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD  
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE  
OF LOWER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. VERY BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS HAVE LOWERED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE DELAWARE BAY  
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.  
THEREFORE WE'VE LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE FOR THESE  
AREAS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FROM LITTLE EGG  
NORTHWARD AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS. BUT SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD END LATER THIS EVENING. SUB-  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KT  
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL WATERS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE. AN ABRUPT  
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT EITHER  
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 KT ARE  
LIKELY THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE  
GUSTS, PRIMARILY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY MARCH 1.  
 
1972 WAS THE YEAR FOR MOST, EXCEPT GED  
 
ACY 72-1972  
 
PHL 76-1972  
 
ILG 75-1972  
 
ABE 67-1972  
 
TTN 74-1972  
 
GED 73-1976  
 
RDG 74-1972  
 
MPO 67-1972  
 
THE FOLLOWING MONTHLY AND SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WERE  
CALCULATED WITH TODAYS MAX/MIN AND THE 330 PM MOUNT HOLLY  
FORECAST FROM TODAY- SUNDAY 2/26/17.  
 
**RECORD WARM FEBRUARY** AND A TOP 10 WARMEST WINTER, AGAIN!  
 
RECORDS DATE BACK TO THE LATE 19TH CENTURY. DETAILS BELOW.  
 
FEBRUARY:  
 
PHL 44.2. #1 NORMAL 35.7 RECORD 42.2-1925 POR 1874  
 
ABE 39.4 #1 NORMAL 30.7 RECORD 38.6-1998 POR 1922  
 
ACY 43.2 #1 NORMAL 35.3 RECORD 41.6-1890 POR 1874  
 
ILG 43.0 #1 NORMAL 35.1 RECORD 42.3-1903 POR 1895  
 
WINTER (DJF)  
 
PHL 40.4 #6 (LAST WINTER WAS 3#) 4 OF TOP 10 SINCE 2000.  
 
ABE 36.0 #5 (LAST WINTER WAS #2) 4 OF TOP 10 SINCE 2000  
 
ACY 39.9 #9 (LAST WINTER WAS #5) 4 OF TOP 10 SINCE 2000  
 
ILG 39.4 #5 TIE (DITTO LAST WINTER) 4 OF TOP 10 SINCE 2000  
 
PAST TWO YEARS OF MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FEBRUARY  
2017, A SUMMARY OF ABOVE NORMAL MONTHS LISTED BELOW:  
 
FOR ABE: 23 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS!  
 
FOR PHL: 22 OF THE PAST 23 MONTHS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
FOR ACY: 19 OF THE PAST 23 MONTHS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. FOR ILG:  
17 OF THE PAST 23 MONTHS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
(JAN-FEB-MARCH 2015 WAS THE LAST TIME WE HAD SIGNIFICANT AND  
PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY TEMPS.)  
 
RECORDS:  
ALLENTOWN ESTABLISHED A NEW RECORD FOR FEBRUARY...THREE  
CONSECUTIVE RECORD BREAKING DAYS OF 70+. ALLENTOWN DID HAVE 3  
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RECORD BREAKING HEAT IN 1991...BUT THE  
RECORDS WERE IN THE 60S (3RD-5TH). ALLENTOWN HAS ESTABLISHED 6  
DAYS OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS MONTH.  
 
SNOW: FEBRUARY LEAST ON RECORD:  
 
ATLANTIC CITY WILL BE TIED FOR 5TH WITH 0.3".  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-  
451.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON  
NEAR TERM...CMS/ROBERTSON  
SHORT TERM...CMS  
LONG TERM...JOHNSON  
AVIATION...CMS/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON  
MARINE...CMS/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON  
CLIMATE...DRAG  
 
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