841  
FXUS61 KPHI 310438  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
1238 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINED OVER EASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST THIS  
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE COLD FRONT  
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT,  
ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA, WILL SLIDE  
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER  
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED DUE TO ANOTHER  
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE HAS  
FINALLY MOVED TO THE EAST AND THE RAIN THAT HAD DEVELOPED IN FRONT  
OF THE COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. THINGS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT AS  
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION OVERNIGHT.  
 
DESPITE LOWER DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT, FOG SHOULD DEVELOP  
ACROSS MOST AREAS TONIGHT GIVEN THE VERY WET GROUND. HOWEVER,  
GIVEN THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN, DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG  
ON LAND. LOW TONIGHT...MILD WITH MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST AREAS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
 
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. SKIES WILL  
BE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME CLOUDINESS  
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SRN NJ. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH SLGT  
CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS...SINCE SOME OF THE  
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MONDAYS SYSTEM WILL NOT YET HAVE EXITED  
THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE A WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S  
ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT EXITING STAGE RIGHT  
IN THE ATLANTIC, WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH  
SITUATED WEST TO EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST TO MAINE. THIS FRONT  
WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE  
MAIN STORY WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, MAYBE INTO FRIDAY. A  
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH  
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE EAST AS STRONG RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER  
THE ROCKIES.  
 
TEMPERATURES...FOR REFERENCE, NORMALS FOR PHL ARE IN THE UPPER 70S  
AND UPPER 50S. FOR THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE  
NORMAL. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AND FAST THE EAST COAST TROF BECOMES  
ESTABLISHED, THE END OF THE PERIOD COULD TRANSITION INTO THE BELOW  
NORMAL RANGE.  
 
PRECIPITATION...SMALL POP SHOWERS HAVE BEEN BEEN PAINTED IN THE  
GRIDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. CURRENTLY, DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT KEEP AN EYE  
OPEN OVER THE OCEAN TO SEE IF ANY STRATUS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPS AND  
GETS PUSHED ONSHORE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN  
THE WEEK WITH THE COLD FRONT. THEN THE MID-LEVEL TROF IS FORECAST TO  
TAKE OVER AND PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER.  
 
WINDS...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND GO EAST ON  
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL  
GO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT, THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE  
TROF SETTLES IN. IT COULD BE A BIT GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,  
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.  
 
IMPACTS...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
MANY TAF SITES WILL START THIS EVENING VFR, BUT EXPECT AREAS OF  
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO  
AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR (ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT HAVE  
SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SUCH AS KILG, KPHL, AND  
KPNE). THE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  
VISIBILITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 10 AND 15Z.  
 
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD,  
SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY 12Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE  
REGION. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS THROUGH OUT THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE  
NEAR OR BELOW 10KT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A SEA BREEZE COULD  
DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SHIFTING THE WINDS AT KACY AND  
POSSIBLY KMIV TO SOUTHEASTERLY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. FEW SHOWERS PSBL FAR  
SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT MVFR CONDITIONS IN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR THE WATERS CONTINUES TO THE THE  
AREAS OF DENSE FOG. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES OVER NIGHT  
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE MOISTURE  
ENRICHED ATMOSPHERE AND THE CHILLY SEA TEMPS WILL PROVIDE THE  
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THIS SEA FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE  
TUESDAY ONCE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND DRIER AIR  
ARRIVES. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA THRU THE PERIOD.  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT DECREASING IN COVERAGE LATE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A PERSISTENT AND SOLID 3 TO 4  
SEA ON THE OCEAN SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS  
COULD GET GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIP  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR  
ANZ431-450>455.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO  
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/MEOLA/O'HARA  
SHORT TERM...O'HARA  
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO/O'HARA  
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/O'HARA  
MARINE...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/O'HARA  
 
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