050  
FXUS61 KPHI 200757  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW  
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE  
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,  
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON  
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON  
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A  
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.  
 
LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE  
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG  
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS  
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO  
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND  
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING  
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN  
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON'T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR  
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN  
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO  
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN  
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
 
 
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL  
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO  
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT  
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY  
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM  
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.  
 
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL  
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH  
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S  
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD  
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL  
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE  
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN  
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS  
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.  
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO  
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.  
 
PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,  
AND THAT'S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  
MONDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON  
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT  
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE  
WEEK.  
 
WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON  
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST  
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE  
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND  
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A  
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.  
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW  
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.  
 
TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING  
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW  
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN  
ANGLE ISN'T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST  
OF KPHL.  
 
TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR  
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME  
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE  
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON  
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE  
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE  
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST  
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT  
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE  
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.  
 
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15  
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6  
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA  
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO  
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
RIP CURRENTS
 
 
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,  
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG  
THE NJ COAST.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO  
NEAR TERM...MEOLA  
SHORT TERM...MEOLA  
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO  
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA  
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA  
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA  
 
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