734  
FXUS61 KPHI 010747  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
347 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE  
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES  
NORTHWARD AS WELL. THESE TWO LOWS WILL MERGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH  
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
IN FROM THE WEST AROUND THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS THE NOW CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES QUICK PROGRESS TOWARDS THE  
CAROLINA COAST, THE OFF SHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH UNTIL  
IT IS EAST OF THE REGION BY MID DAY. IN RESPONSE, THE ONSHORE FLOW  
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO INCREASE AND A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT AND MODERATE  
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FURTHER INLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, SO EXPECT THE WINDY  
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER, DO NOT  
EXPECT WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL  
LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING LAYER. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHICH COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS  
NEAR 40 MPH.  
 
AS THE CENTER OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF SHORE THIS  
AFTERNOON, WILL SEE DRY AIR BEGIN TO FILTER IN TO THE REGION,  
RESULTING IN THE PRECIP DISSIPATING FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/
 
 
PRECIP WILL DISSIPATE FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. EVEN  
THOUGH IT IS UNUSUAL TO SEE WINDY OR EVEN BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE  
OVER NIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS, EXPECT THE  
WINDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ON SUNDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH  
THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, AN  
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  
BETWEEN THE TWO, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE  
AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG WINDS.  
WINDS IN THE LOWEST 2,000-3,000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND  
35-45 KNOTS. THIS COULD LEAD TO WIND GUSTS WELL INTO THE 30-40 MPH  
RANGE AT THE SURFACE, AND WE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME GUSTS APPROACH  
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. ANY LEFT OVER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HAVE  
PULLED TO OUR NORTHEAST BY DAYBREAK, AND PW VALUES WILL BE  
DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION  
DURING THE DAY.  
 
BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS SOME, BUT NOT  
COMPLETELY. SO THERE WILL STILL REMAIN A STEADY BREEZE, BUT AS  
DAYTIME MIXING IS LOST, THE STRONG GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH  
THE NIGHT.  
 
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH  
AND NOSE ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE  
TO WORK WITH AND NO SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE  
IN CLOUDS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A PIECE OF MOISTURE  
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA, OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHICH WILL  
ALLOW A RETURN FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARMING  
TEMPERATURES AND A INCREASE IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS. WE DO NOT EXPECT  
ANY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN  
CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY.  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT  
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE  
PRECIPITATION DRYING OUT/DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY  
MOVE INTO MOSTLY OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.  
 
AS WE GO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING OUT OF THE  
GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
AT LEAST THURSDAY AND MAYBE LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO  
OUR NORTH. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD  
STREAM DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THIS IS STILL PRETTY FAR IN  
THE FUTURE SO WE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL SOON OVERSPREAD ACROSS THE  
REGION. THE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT  
LEAST MID DAY. LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID  
MORNING WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER AREAS OF RA. STARTING AROUND 18Z,  
SHOULD SEE CEILING HEIGHT INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH -RA ALSO ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT ALL TAF SITES TO  
RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ACY WHICH SHOULD REMAIN  
MVFR (OR LOWER) THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AT LEAST.  
 
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM NORTHEASTERLY NOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY  
AFTER 18Z. SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH  
AT LEAST 15G25KT EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES BY 18Z. WINDS SHOULD BE  
STRONGEST AT KACY WHERE 20G30KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, BUT WINDY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 30-40  
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  
 
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT ...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET MONDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE  
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY ON THE NJ ATLANTIC  
COASTAL WATERS, AND ON THE DE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE DE BAY  
AFTER SUNRISE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND  
UP TO 5 FT ON THE BAY LATER TODAY. THE GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE  
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT, BUT WINDS MAY BEGIN TO LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS  
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  
 
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY, THEN  
DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS,  
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE AND GET CLOSE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER  
LEVELS DOWN THE SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS  
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS  
FOR THIS AFTERNOONS HIGH TIDE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN AT THE TIME OF  
HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES  
FOR SUSSEX COUNTY IN DE AND CAPE MAY AND ATLANTIC COUNTIES IN NJ  
WHERE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE  
LATEST GUIDANCE (WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE  
CYCLE WELL) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE COASTS OF  
BURLINGTON, OCEAN, MONMOUTH, AND MIDDLESEX COUNTIES. THOUGH RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVER AN INCH, ANY RAINFALL WITH HIGH  
TIDE COULD EXACERBATE THE TIDAL FLOODING ISSUES.  
 
RIGHT NOW ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE  
BAY, WITH POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF  
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP THROUGH REEDY POINT. NO  
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE  
DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA.  
 
NO PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORES OF THE  
CHESAPEAKE BAY AFFECTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE  
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT  
THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020-022>027.  
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT  
THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-004.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ450>453.  
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY  
NIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-454-455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON  
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON  
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON  
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON  
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON  
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON  
 
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