256  
FXUS61 KPHI 011918  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
318 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A  
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH  
THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE  
REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
A HOT STEAMY DAY WILL TURN INTO A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE  
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE WARM  
AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AND THE INLAND MOVING SEA/BAY BREEZE. THESE  
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND THE WINDS WEAKEN ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY.  
 
TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST THE SEVERAL NIGHTS BUT WITH SOME  
CIRRUS MOVING IN TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR TOO WARMER.  
EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE  
WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE. WITH THE  
DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES  
DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF  
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE  
AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S.  
 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY.  
AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE  
SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE  
POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES  
INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE  
SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,  
FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES  
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE  
TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN  
COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH.  
 
THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN  
SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION  
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES.  
 
ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF  
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY  
INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
A SEA BREEZE IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD  
MAKE IT TO KTTN AND KPNE, POSSIBLY KPHL AND KILG. A BAY BREEZE HAS  
PUSHED INLAND INTO KMIV THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE  
BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.  
 
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND THE  
REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE SUN THIS EVENING AND  
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND  
LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH  
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY  
AROUND 15Z AND WE SHOULD BE VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY  
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10  
KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 5000FT EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE DAY.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR.  
 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS  
POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND  
15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.  
 
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF  
THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A  
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY  
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD  
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL  
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON  
NEAR TERM...MEOLA  
SHORT TERM...MEOLA  
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON  
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA  
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA  
 
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