654  
FXUS61 KPHI 250101  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
901 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY  
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD  
INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN  
BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED  
FRONTS ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
930 PM UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE REMAINS  
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS, BUT GIVEN CEILINGS ABOVE 20000 FT AGL, AND  
THE FACT THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z, DO NOT THINK  
THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT LOWS FOR TONIGHT, SO ONLY MADE  
MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT  
TRENDS.  
 
PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY  
CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET.  
EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME.  
 
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD  
SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S  
URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT  
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD  
AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING  
THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH  
TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS  
AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR  
AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER  
PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!  
 
RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES  
BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE  
SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS  
OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT  
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY  
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF  
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR  
POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH  
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE  
FORECAST FROM BEFORE.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND  
NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY  
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH  
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THE MAIN THING OF NOTE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE  
THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH.  
 
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY  
A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS  
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY  
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY WHICH  
CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN  
IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A  
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE'LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE  
PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION  
SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF  
TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY  
TIMEFRAME.  
 
WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE  
SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO  
EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A  
NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT  
WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO  
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST  
BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,  
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE ARE  
DIMINISHING HIGH (GREATER THAN 20000 FT AGL) CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH  
12Z, AND FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY MID DAY TOMORROW. WINDS,  
CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY AROUND  
18Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY  
WERE TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KACY, WHERE WESTERLY  
WINDS COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD (AFTER 21Z) FOR A  
SHORT TIME BEFORE SUNSET.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30  
KNOTS ON SUNDAY.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED  
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SUNDAY MORNING  
ON THE DELAWARE BAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE GUSTS UP TO 30KT.  
HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH OR BE JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE  
OCEAN WATERS ONCE THE WINDS INCREASE.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO  
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON  
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO  
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND  
CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5  
FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR  
ANZ450>455.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-  
431.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON  
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON  
SHORT TERM...DRAG  
LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON  
AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON  
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab PA Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab DE Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page