117  
FXUS61 KPHI 260148  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
948 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WILL  
CAUSE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THE FRONT  
WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL  
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.  
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND WINDS HAVE REALLY STARTED TO LIGHTEN  
UP SO FAR THIS EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
NIGHT.  
 
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50'S OUTSIDE OF THE PHILADELPHIA AREA, AS  
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL THIS EVENING. THE PINE BARRENS, LEHIGH  
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTH- CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WILL LIKELY SEE  
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW DEGREES BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE SETS SUCH  
AS THE MET AND MAV INDICATE BASED ON THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER US,  
AND AS RH VALUES INCREASE OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM  
BRIEFLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THE  
SUN COMES UP.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
 
 
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE BUILDING EAST AND OUT OF THE  
REGION BY DAYS END. AS A RESULT, WINDS WILL INCREASE BY THE  
AFTERNOON FROM A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 MPH AT TIMES.  
SIMILAR TO TODAY, MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND VARIOUS  
GUIDANCE SETS SUCH AS THE MET AND MAV WILL LIKELY BE TO LOW WITH  
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE MODELED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND DRY  
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THE LEHIGH VALLEY  
LOOKS TO BE WARMEST, NEAR 90 ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOCATIONS NEAR THE  
SHORE IN THE 70'S AND 80'S. NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST  
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARBY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO  
MONDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THE AREA AND SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE. IT WILL BE A MILD EVENING AND WARM  
DAY MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. A COUPLE TSTMS MAY  
DEVELOP ACROSS PA AND AFFECT THE MOST N/W AREAS MON AFTERNOON. WE  
JUST HAVE SOME SMALL POPS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.  
 
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT THRU WED MORNING. A  
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TUE AND THEN STALL  
ACROSS THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND WED. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO FOCUS  
SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ACROSS THESE AREAS. WE WILL MENTION THE  
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT.  
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL WITH THE  
ABUNDANT CLOUDS EXPECTED.  
 
FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE IT'S WAY  
BACK OVER THE AREA. WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY DRY OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR  
THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOW/MID 80S OVER THE AREA.  
 
ANOTHER H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF CANADA LATE NEXT WEEK. A COLD  
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AT THAT TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WE WILL HAVE CHC POPS  
IN THE FCST FOR THESE PERIODS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.  
 
TONIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL  
REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO  
CREATE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 06-10Z AT KRDG AND  
KMIV.  
 
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
MID-MORNING, THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR  
LESS.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
SUN NIGHT AND MON...VFR. A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE FAR N/W MON AFTERNOON.  
MON NIGHT THRU WED...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH LOWER  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WAVEHEIGHTS HAVE STRUGGLED TODAY TO REACH THE FOUR TO FEET  
FORECASTED BY WAVEWATCH ON PREVIOUS CYCLES. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY  
AROUND THREE FEET AND WILL REMAIN AROUND THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE  
NIGHT WITH EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NO  
HEADLINES.  
 
SUNDAY: SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND THREE  
FEET THROUGH THE DAY WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10  
KNOTS. NO HEADLINES.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE  
WATERS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THERE WILL BE TWO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND  
TSTMS WHICH WILL AFFECT LOCAL WINDS/SEAS. THE FIRST PERIOD IS MON  
NIGHT THRU WED AND THE OTHER IS FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.  
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT THRU THE PERIOD.  
 
RIP CURRENTS...  
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH  
SUNDAY. WE HAVE ISSUED A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...O'HARA  
NEAR TERM...GAINES/MEOLA  
SHORT TERM...GAINES  
LONG TERM...O'HARA  
AVIATION...GAINES/MEOLA/O'HARA  
MARINE...GAINES/MEOLA/O'HARA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab PA Page
The Nexlab NJ Page
The Nexlab DE Page
The Nexlab MD Page Main Text Page