995  
FXUS61 KPHI 191030  
AFDPHI  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ  
630 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WHILE SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY ALOFT MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES  
NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND AN ATTACHED FRONT CROSSES THE MIDDLE  
ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.  
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY BEFORE MORNING  
AWAY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ENVELOPS THE NORTHEAST  
AND MID-ATLANTIC. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY AS STRONG  
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.  
 
HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOW TO UPPER 40S, EXCEPT IN THE  
30S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE  
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS. A  
STRATOCU DECK WILL DEVELOP AS WELL AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  
 
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME LAKE  
EFFECT STREAMERS WILL DEVELOP OFF OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE  
ONTARIO, AND SOME OF THOSE SNOW SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT DOWN TO  
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, AND PARTS OF THE  
LEHIGH VALLEY. ANY QPF AND SNOWFALL WILL BE MINIMAL.  
 
CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY  
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL MAINLY BE OUT THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST  
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID  
30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
FOR WEDNESDAY, ONE LAST SURGE OF COLD AND DRY AIR WORKS ITS WAY  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. THE  
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND LIFT AWAY AFTER WED/THU. A SURFACE  
LOW PRESSURE (AROUND 996MB) HEADS SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO  
AND TOWARDS QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE LOW CROSSES THE  
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE DECENT WIND FIELDS BUT  
LIMITED MOISTURE ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WE'LL JUST CONTINUE WITH  
THE CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA AND SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS FOR THE AREAS (MOSTLY) NORTH/WEST OF I95. COULD END UP BEING  
GUSTY WINDS/SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH AREAS WITH DECENT INVERTED-V  
SOUNDINGS PRESENT AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED. A LITTLE SLEET MIXING  
IN FOR THE NORTH-MOST AREAS IS POSSIBLE. WINDS GUSTING OVER 40  
MPH PROBABLE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS  
AND NORTH NJ WHILE 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS CLOSE TO 60 FOR SRN DELAWARE.  
 
FAIR AND COLD WED NIGHT WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS FOR THE S/E AREAS  
AND 20S FOR N/W LOCALS. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.  
 
FAIR WEATHER THURSDAY, BUT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS--SEE BELOW. TEMPERATURES  
BELOW NORMAL WITH 40S AND MID/UPPER 30S N/W. GUSTY W/NW WINDS 10  
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30/35 MPH POSSIBLE. FAIR AND COLD THU  
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION AND A FEW TEENS ATOP  
MOUNT POCONO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY, LINGERING FROM THE  
SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG  
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. IT WILL STILL BE COOL FOR  
MID/LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS FOR SAT MORNING ENDING  
UP IN THE 30S.  
 
THESE COOLER TEMPS WILL FACTOR IN THE FORECAST FRI NIGHT WHEN  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE AS  
LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE EAST COAST. THE NEWEST 00Z CMC HAS TRENDED  
TOWARDS THE GFS RUNS FROM YESTERDAY IN BRINGING BETTER QPF/LIFT TO  
THE AREA. NBM POPS FOR THE PERIODS ARE NOW IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY  
FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. P-TYPE COULD START AS SOME SNOW FOR THE  
SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTH NJ WHICH COULD CREATE LOCAL SLIPPERY  
TRAVEL IF PRECIP RATES INCREASE BEFORE THE SFC TEMPS DO. HIGHS SAT  
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S FOR THE N/W COUNTIES TO THE  
MID/UPPER 50S FOR DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. GENERALLY WENT WITH NBM  
TEMPS/POPS FOR NOW.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN BACK TO DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. JUST LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS, TEMPS  
WILL NOT BE IN ANY HURRY TO RETURN BACK TO LATE SPRING LEVELS AND  
READINGS WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S  
SUNDAY AND CLOSER TO 50 FOR MONDAY. BREEZY WEATHER BOTH DAYS.  
LOOKING TOWARDS TUESDAY, MOST PRESENT OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE DRY FOR  
THE AREA AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT TEMPS MAY POPS BACK NEAR  
NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FCST PAST THE WEEKEND  
AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,  
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...  
 
TODAY...VFR. STRATOCU DECK DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING AT 6000  
TO 8000 FEET. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO  
15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON.  
HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
TONIGHT...VFR. STRATOCU DECK AT 6000 TO 8000 FT WILL SCATTER  
OUT AFTER 06Z. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND BECOME S-SW AT  
5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WED... VFR EXCEPT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS UP  
TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
THU/FRI... VFR. GUSTY W/NW WINDS ESPECIALLY THU.  
 
SAT/SAT NIGHT ... INCREASING CLOUDS THE SUB-VFR PROBABLE BY  
MID-MORNING WITH RAINS/FOG DEVELOPING. NE/E WINDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF TODAY DUE TO  
W-NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS. SEAS MAINLY 3 TO  
5 FEET. WINDS TURN SW TONIGHT AT 15 TO 20 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE  
POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A SCA FOR TONIGHT  
JUST YET.  
 
OUTLOOK...  
 
WED/THU... SCA EXPECTED. FEW SHOWERS WED AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTH  
NJ WATERS, OTHERWISE FAIR.  
 
FRI... SUB-SCA. FAIR.  
 
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY... SCA EXPECTED. GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.  
RAINS AND FOG FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. FAIR SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH  
AS 30 MPH. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON,  
MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT.  
 
LATER THIS WEEK, COLD AND DRY AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA LATER WED. FOLLOWING  
A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR FIRE WEATHER FOLLOWING THE  
FRONT WED, BUT BECOME MORE CONCERNING THU. AS DEW POINTS CRASH INTO  
THE TEENS AND SINGLE NUMBERS. GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND ENHANCE  
FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. COORDINATION WITH FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS AND  
POSSIBLE STATEMENTS/FLAGS FOR THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
PA...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
DE...NONE.  
MD...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-  
431-450>455.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON  
NEAR TERM...MPS  
SHORT TERM...OHARA  
LONG TERM...OHARA  
AVIATION...MPS/OHARA  
MARINE...MPS/OHARA  
FIRE WEATHER...  
 
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