168  
FGUS71 KBOX 161626  
ESFBOX  
CTC003-013-015-MAC001-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-  
027-RIC001-003-005-007-009-181630-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
1126 AM EST THU FEB 16 2017  
 
...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN  
CONNECTICUT, SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST  
MASSACHUSETTS...  
 
THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS NORMAL  
FOR MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS, NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND, AND ALONG THE  
CONNECTICUT RIVER IN CONNECTICUT. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AWAY FROM THE CONNECTICUT  
RIVER, NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND, AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. THE  
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS MUCH BELOW NORMAL.  
 
THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE HAS A MAP DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL  
OUTLOOK...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/SPRINGFLOODPOTENTIAL  
 
THIS IS THE FOURTH WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK OF THE 2017  
SEASON. THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON CURRENT AND FORECAST  
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES SNOW COVER AND SNOW  
WATER EQUIVALENT, STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS AND THE AMOUNT OF ICE  
COVERAGE, RECENT PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES, AND EXPECTED  
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  
   
..RECENT PRECIPITATION
 
 
JANUARY 2017 BROUGHT NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION RANGED FROM 3.5 TO 5 INCHES  
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WAS MAINLY WITHIN A HALF INCH OF NORMAL.  
THE EXCEPTION WAS RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS, WHERE  
HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES FELL. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS 1 TO  
3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
FEBRUARY 2017 PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH-TO-DATE  
ACROSS THE REGION. LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS RANGE MAINLY FROM 2  
TO 3 INCHES. THERE WERE SOME HIGHER TOTALS WITHIN EASTERN  
MASSACHUSETTS, WHERE SOME LOCALES HAD LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS  
THAT WERE GREATER THAN AN INCH ABOVE NORMAL MONTH-TO-DATE.  
 
TEMPERATURES DURING JANUARY AVERAGED 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA, BOSTON, WORCESTER, HARTFORD AND  
PROVIDENCE RANKED BETWEEN THEIR 10TH AND 12TH WARMEST JANUARY ON  
RECORD.  
 
FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES MONTH-TO-DATE HAVE AVERAGED NEAR OR  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
 
 
 
SNOW DEPTH HAD INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST 2 WEEKS, AND  
AS OF FEBRUARY 17 THE AREA'S SNOW PACK WAS SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL  
IN DEPTH AND EXTENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOW DEPTH RANGED FROM  
10 TO 20 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEPER SNOW PACK OF 20 TO  
NEAR 30 INCHES WAS FOUND ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE  
WORCESTER HILLS, AND IN NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS ALONG THE EAST  
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES.  
 
SNOW DEPTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN RHODE  
ISLAND WAS SOMEWHAT LESS, PREDOMINANTLY 4 TO 10 INCHES. THEN ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COASTS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND, SNOW  
DEPTH WAS A TRACE TO A FEW INCHES DEEP. NO SNOW WAS REPORTED ON THE  
GROUND AT BLOCK ISLAND AND NANTUCKET.  
 
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGED FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3.5 TO LOCALLY OVER 5  
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EAST SLOPES OF THE  
BERKSHIRES, AS WELL AS HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. SNOW  
WATER EQUIVALENT ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL RI AND SOUTH COASTAL MA WAS  
MAINLY 2 INCHES OR LESS.  
   
..RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS
 
 
 
AS OF FEBRUARY 17, RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL  
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE WERE  
STILL A SOME WATERWAYS RUNNING BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL CONNECTICUT.  
 
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING JANUARY SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED  
THE AMOUNT OF RIVER ICE DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURRED DURING THE MIDDLE  
OF WINTER. RIVER ICE HAS GROWN SOMEWHAT IN EXTENT AND COVERAGE  
DURING THE PAST 2 WEEKS, BUT IS STILL MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR. SO HEADING FORWARD, THE FLOOD RISK DUE TO ICE JAMS IS  
MUCH BELOW NORMAL.  
   
..SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY
 
 
 
JANUARY BROUGHT SOME SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS,  
BOOSTING STREAMFLOW AND GROUND WATER, AND INCREASING SOIL MOISTURE.  
WHILE SOIL MOISTURE AS OF MID FEBRUARY WAS STILL PREDOMINANTLY BELOW  
NORMAL, IMPROVEMENT HAD OCCURRED.  
 
WATER SUPPLY AS OF EARLY FEBRUARY WAS NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN  
MASSACHUSETTS, PREDOMINANTLY BELOW NORMAL IN CONNECTICUT, AND NORMAL  
TO ABOVE NORMAL IN RHODE ISLAND.  
 
IN RHODE ISLAND, SCITUATE RESERVOIR WAS AT 98% OF CAPACITY, WHICH  
IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
IN CONNECTICUT, STATE OVERALL WATER SUPPLY HAD IMPROVED  
CONSIDERABLY, TO 79.8% OF CAPACITY/USABLE STORAGE AS OF EARLY  
FEBRUARY. HOWEVER SOME RESERVOIRS WERE STILL LOW AS OF EARLY  
FEBRUARY. SOUTHINGTON WATER DEPARTMENT REPORTED 47% USABLE  
STORAGE, NEW BRITAIN 41.6 %, AND BRISTOL 55.5%. MANCHESTER WATER  
DEPARTMENT SAW SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT, AND WAS AT 89% USABLE  
STORAGE AS OF EARLY FEBRUARY.  
 
IN MASSACHUSETTS, RESERVOIRS MONITORED BY THE STATE DEPARTMENT OF  
CONSERVATION AND RECREATION WERE MAINLY AT NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL  
LEVELS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. QUABBIN RESERVOIR WAS AT 79.9% OF  
CAPACITY AS OF FEBRUARY 1, WITH WACHUSETT RESERVOIR AT 91.3%.  
   
..TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
 
 
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE WITHIN  
A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. HOWEVER MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST  
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON  
SUNDAY MAY REACH 50 DEGREES IN SOME LOCALES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS  
ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGION FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH A CHANCE  
FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK.  
 
FOR THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK, FEBRUARY 23 TO MARCH 1, THE CLIMATE  
PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION  
TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL.  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
BASED ON INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME, THE LATE WINTER AND  
SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS,  
NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND, AND ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER IN  
CONNECTICUT. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS  
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AWAY FROM THE CONNECTICUT RIVER, NORTHERN  
RHODE ISLAND, AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.  
 
SNOW DEPTHS AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS INCLUSIVE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AS  
WELL AS THE HEADWATERS OF THE CONNECTICUT AND MERRIMACK RIVERS IN  
VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.  
 
OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY PERIOD OF SHORT  
TERM IMPROVEMENTS TO THE LONGER TERM DROUGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS  
HAVE BEEN NOTED IN RESERVOIRS, GROUNDWATER, RIVERS AND STREAMS,  
AND THERE HAS BEEN AN ESTABLISHMENT OF A SNOW PACK. THUS THE  
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MAINLY NEAR NORMAL. ACROSS AREAS WHERE THE  
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL, THERE IS STILL MORE  
DROUGHT-RELATED BUFFER AVAILABLE IN RIVERS, STREAMS, GROUNDWATER  
AND RESERVOIRS, SHOULD A HEAVY RAINFALL OR COMBINATION RAINFALL-  
SNOWMELT EVENT MATERIALIZE.  
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, ALTHOUGH A WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR  
THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEKEND, AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR  
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK. THE SNOW  
PACK WILL COMPACT AND HAVE SOME MELT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,  
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER A RAPID MELT IS NOT ANTICIPATED OVER  
THIS TIMEFRAME.  
 
WITH THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION, THIS TIMEFRAME MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER  
SNOWMELT TO OCCUR.  
 
KEEP IN MIND THAT HEAVY RAIN CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE  
YEAR. THOSE WITH INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD CHECK THE  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS ANY POTENTIAL FLOOD  
EVENTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON AND  
CLICK ON THE OPTION HAZARDS, THEN CLICK ON LOCAL OUTLOOK.  
 

 
 
FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON  
 
YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT  
@NWSBOSTON  
 
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