122  
FNUS71 KBOX 151715  
FWSBOX  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR NANTUCKET LAND BANK SMOOTH HUMMOCKS, 1C NORTH...NANTUCKET LAND BANK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
1215 PM EST WED NOV 15 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON NOVEMBER 15.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.  
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MAY GRADUALLY TURN MOSTLY CLOUDY LATER TODAY AS  
SOME CLOUDS WORK IN FROM THE NORTH. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 60 TO 70 PERCENT.  
   
REST OF TODAY
 
 
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (36400 KNOT-FT).  
CEILING (KFT).......5.3, DECREASING TO 2.1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.  
DEWPOINT............34.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SPRINKLES IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...38.  
SURFACE WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4100 FT AGL.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12 TO 16 MPH.  
 
TIME (EST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........57 62 67 72 77 78 79 80 79  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............46 46 47 47 47 47 46 45 43  
DEWPOINT........33 34 35 35 35 34 34 34 35  
RH..............60 63 63 63 63 60 63 65 73  
HEAT INDEX (F)..40 40 41 41 41 42 41 40 38  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N NE NE NE NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 14 14 13 12 10 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.18 20 20 18 18 18 18 17 15  
SURFACE WND DIR.N N N N N NE NE NE NE  
SURFACE WND SPD.15 15 14 14 13 12 10 10 9  
SURFACE WND GST.18 20 20 18 18 18 18 17 15  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100057 56 51 50 45 45 41 41 36  
CEILING (KFT)...5.3 5.3 4.2 3.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.4  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (28000-34200 KNOT-FT).  
CEILING (KFT).......2.0, INCREASING TO 2.5 AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.  
DEWPOINT............37, INCREASING TO 40 LATE.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.  
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.  
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS LATE.  
MIN APPARENT TEMP...37.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700-3600 FT AGL.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 14 MPH.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........78 77 73 68 64 71 78 85 88 90 93 94  
WEATHER COV..... SCH  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW  
TSTM COV........  
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............42 43 42 42 43 42 42 42 42 43 44 44  
DEWPOINT........35 36 35 36 36 36 36 36 37 38 39 40  
RH..............76 76 76 79 76 79 79 79 82 82 82 86  
HEAT INDEX (F)..37 39 38 38 39 38 38 38 38 38 39 39  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 13  
SURFACE WND DIR.NE NE E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
SURFACE WND SPD.8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9  
SURFACE WND GST.13 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 13  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 9 9 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 14  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100032 28 28 31 31 31 34 34 33 31 29 33  
CEILING (KFT)...2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (29900-47700 KNOT-FT).  
CEILING (KFT).......15, DECREASING TO 6.0 EARLY IN THE MORNING,  
THEN DECREASING TO 1.5 LATE IN THE MORNING,  
DECREASING TO 1.0, DECREASING TO 0.8,  
INCREASING TO 2.0 LATE.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.  
DEWPOINT............41, INCREASING TO 47 IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
CWR.................0 PERCENT, INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT, THEN  
DECREASING TO 83 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 33 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.  
MIN HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.  
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE.  
MAX APPARENT TEMP...45.  
SURFACE WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 33 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2600 FT AGL.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 24 MPH, INCREASING TO 25 TO 28  
MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING WEST  
24 TO 28 MPH LATE.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........95 97 100 99 95 90  
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE  
CWR.............0 100 100 100 80 80  
TEMP............45 47 50 50 50 49  
DEWPOINT........40 43 47 48 49 49  
RH..............82 86 89 93 96 100  
HEAT INDEX (F)..40 42 45 44 44 43  
20 FT WIND......SE 9 SE 12 SE 15 SE 17 S 17 SW 16  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 20 23 30 29 21  
SURFACE WIND....SE 9 SE 12 SE 15 SE 17 S 17 SW 16  
SURFACE WND GST.16 20 23 30 29 21  
MIX HGT (FT)....2600 2200 2000 1700 1500 1400  
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 15 SE 18 SE 22 SE 25 S 26 W 24  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/100033 36 37 37 35 30  
CEILING (KFT)...15 6.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8  
 

 
FORECASTER...DUNTEN  
REQUESTED BY...T. PARKER SCHUERMAN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1718849.0/BOX  
.EMAIL TSCHUERMAN@NANTUCKETLANDBANK.ORG  
 
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