194  
FXUS61 KBOX 180833  
AFDBOX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA  
333 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE SNOW QUICKLY ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING FOLLOWED  
BY RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES RISE WELL ABOVE  
FREEZING TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF  
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE  
FOR POTENTIALLY NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND  
PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER  
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME  
UNSETTLED WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
1250 AM UPDATE...  
 
KBOX 88D DUAL POL CONTINUES TO SHOW CORRELATION COEFFICIENT (CC)  
VALUES OF AROUND 0.8, INDICATIVE OF WET SNOW AND/OR RAIN ACROSS  
SE RI AND S COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE MID AND LOWER  
CAPE AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. ALSO NOTING BRIGHT BANDING ON THE  
0.5 DEGREE REFLECTIVITY WHERE THE MIXED PRECIP LIES. TEMPS IN  
THOSE AREAS RANGED FROM 33 DEGREES FROM KPVD-KPYM, UP TO 39  
DEGREES AT KACK AT 05Z WHERE IT CONTINUES TO LIGHTLY RAIN.  
 
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED BACK TO LIGHT N ACROSS THE CT VALLEY WHERE  
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30, WHILE HEAVIER SNOW WAS  
REPORTED ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NE MASS DOWN TO THE ROUTE 128  
WHERE VISIBILITIES WERE BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 MILE. NOTING SNOW  
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS N CENTRAL CT INTO NW RI ON PUBLIC  
INFORMATION STATEMENT AT 1217 AM.  
 
WITH THE MIX AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS,  
HAVE ENDED THE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER  
ADVISORIES ACROSS THOSE AREAS.  
 
NOTING BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WORKING INTO SW CT, MOVING INTO THE  
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ENE EARLY  
THIS MORNING.  
 
HAVE UPDATED TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT, INCLUDING HEADLINES TO  
BE IN LINE WITH THE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ACROSS S RI/S COASTAL  
MASS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
 
 
THE STORM TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DEPART WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE MID  
LEVEL FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC  
STATES, BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. EXPECTING A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW  
MELT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS  
SUNDAY NIGHT COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE ON  
UNTREATED SURFACES.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGHLIGHTS...  
 
* WARM FRONT LIKELY BRINGS A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWER LATE MON/MON NIGHT  
 
* NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH POSSIBLE TUE/WED W/HIGHEST RISK WED  
 
* COOLER TEMPERATURES THU/FRI/SAT WITH PERHAPS SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER  
 
DETAILS...  
 
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...  
 
SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDINESS AHEAD  
OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. ENOUGH FORCING/LIFT WILL BE AVAILABLE  
WITH THIS FRONT FOR A ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT. HIGH  
TEMPS MON WILL BE WELL UP INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50...BUT EXPECT  
MAINLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES MON NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF  
LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AREAS OF FOG MAY ALSO  
DEVELOP.  
 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...  
 
ANOMALOUS 594 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST  
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF NEAR RECORD WARMTH TUE/WED  
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED...HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE MARINE  
INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS TUE/WED. IN  
FACT...MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR 70+ DEGREE READINGS ON WED IN SOME LOCATIONS.  
 
WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS ONE BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD  
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING.  
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF LOW CLOUDS ON TUE AND  
POSSIBLY SOME ON WED. IF LOW CLOUDS DO GET IN THE WAY IT STILL  
WOULD BE MILD...BUT HIGH TEMPS WOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S. GREATER  
CONCERN FOR LOW CLOUDS APPEARS TO BE TUE...BUT CAN NOT RULE THEM OUT  
WED EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST.  
 
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY....  
 
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REMAIN  
FAIRLY STRONG...A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND  
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION.  
THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS THU/FRI/SAT...BUT STILL EXPECT  
READINGS TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A BIT OF  
ANA FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ON THU...BUT THAT IS UNCERTAIN. A BETTER  
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION EXISTS SOMETIME FRI AND/OR  
SAT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. PTYPE FAVORS LIQUID...ALTHOUGH  
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A BIT OF ICE/SNOW IF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE  
HANGS IN A BIT LONGER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
 
OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING WITH ONSET -SN/SN, POSSIBLE +SN FOR  
BDL TO BOS AND INTERIOR TERMINALS S/E AWAY FROM THE COAST. SOME  
MIXED -RA/-SN ALONG S COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH MAINLY RA AT KACK.  
LOWERING LIFR-VLIFR WITH 1/4SM SN VV002 FOR SOME TOWARD  
MIDNIGHT, BUT SOME QUESTION WHERE THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL  
SET UP. IFR-LIFR FOR S COASTAL TERMINALS WITH MIX WITH, POSSIBLE  
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.  
 
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 07Z-08Z BECOME N-NW TOWARD  
DAYBREAK.  
 
TODAY...  
BRIEF LEFTOVER MVFR-IFR CIGS THROUGH 14Z, THEN VFR. NW WIND  
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT THIS MORNING, HIGHEST ACROSS HIGHER  
INLAND TERRAIN AND ALONG THE COAST, THEN DIMINISH DURING THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TONIGHT...  
VFR.  
 
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  
IFR CONDITIONS IN -SN, MAY SEE CONDITIONS BRIEFLY LOWER TO  
LIFR IN OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SN THROUGH 08Z-09Z. SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG RUNWAYS OF AROUND 2-3 INCHES. CONDITIONS  
IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 12Z-14Z.  
 
KBDL TERMINAL...  
SNOW BEGIN REPORTED, WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY GOING TOWARDS  
MIDNIGHT, DIMINISHING A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER, LIGHT INTO THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKING FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON THE  
RUNWAYS POTENTIALLY UP AROUND 6 INCHES. AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS  
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.  
 
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE LATE.  
BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA LATE.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SHRA  
LIKELY, PATCHY BR.  
 
TUESDAY: MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. BREEZY. PATCHY BR.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  
 
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR  
POSSIBLE. BREEZY. CHANCE SHRA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...  
 
LOW - LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.  
MODERATE - 30 TO 60 PERCENT.  
HIGH - GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
 
POOR VISIBILITY WITH GUSTY E-SE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT IN SNOW  
AND RAIN. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 30 KT. ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED TO  
BUILD ONCE MORE ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. GUSTY NW  
WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE, TOO.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSTED FOR ALL THE WATERS AT SOME POINT  
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.  
 
WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE MAINLY  
CONFINED TO OUR EASTERN OUTER-WATERS. AREAS OF SEAS APPROACHING 5 FT.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH  
LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS, PATCHY FOG. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.  
 
TUESDAY: LOW RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS,  
PATCHY FOG. LOCAL VISIBILITY 1 TO 3 NM.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS UP TO 5 FT. SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE RISK FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. AREAS OF ROUGH SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN  
SHOWERS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. LOCAL ROUGH SEAS.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
THURSDAY: WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT. SEAS LOCALLY APPROACHING 5 FT.  
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD HIGHEST OBSERVED TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY...  
(SINCE RECORDS BEGAN)  
 
BOSTON.........73 (02/24/2017)  
HARTFORD.......73 (02/24/1985)  
PROVIDENCE.....72 (02/24/1985)  
WORCESTER......69 (02/24/2017)  
 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (TUESDAY 20TH / WEDNESDAY 21ST)...  
 
FEBRUARY.......20TH......21ST.....  
 
BOSTON.........68 (1930) 63 (1906)  
HARTFORD.......69 (1930) 63 (1930)  
PROVIDENCE.....69 (1930) 63 (1930)  
WORCESTER......65 (1930) 59 (1930)  
 
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE...  
 
FEBRUARY.......20TH......21ST.....  
 
BOSTON.........46 (1930) 45 (1994)  
HARTFORD.......50 (1981) 49 (1981)  
PROVIDENCE.....48 (1981) 50 (1981)  
WORCESTER......47 (1981) 43 (2002)  
 

 
   
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
CTZ002>004.  
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
MAZ005>007-011>019.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
MAZ002>004-008>010-026.  
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR  
RIZ001>006.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231>234.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ230.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EST TODAY  
FOR ANZ236.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS  
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ235-237.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250-  
256.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ254-  
255.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FRANK  
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL/EVT  
SHORT TERM...BELK  
LONG TERM...FRANK  
AVIATION...EVT/FRANK  
MARINE...EVT/FRANK  
CLIMATE...STAFF  
 
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