487
FXUS61 KBOX 091155
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EST MON NOV 9 2009
SYNOPSIS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE UNSEASONABLY MILD AIR THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR BY LATE IN THE DAY. A SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL STORM WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS INTO
OUR REGION. THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM THE
MID 20S IN THE VALLEYS TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WORCESTER HILLS...INDICATIVE OF A MILD BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY DRY
AIR MASS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS AS
WELL.
ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE MILDEST
AIR SHOULD REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING. NAM/GFS H925 TEMPS ADVERTISED
TO REACH AROUND +14 TO +16 CELSIUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NAM/GFS
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW...PERHAPS DUE TO SSW SFC WIND
TRAJECTORY PROVIDING SOME INCREASING MARINE CONTAMINATION SOUTH OF
THE PIKE THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL OCCUR AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REBOUND
NICELY TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF
RECORD HIGHS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE EXCEPT AT 500 MB AND ABOVE. CONSIDERABLE
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA AND ALSO DUE TO AN
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE LOWER LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS....FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. STAYED CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE...BUT RAISED A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN CT...RHODE
ISLAND AND SE MASSACHUSETTS DUE TO THE MILD START.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST LARGELY BASED ON THE NAM...GGEM AND
ECMWF. DISCOUNTED THE 00Z GFS AS ITS SOLUTION LOOKS TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER.
WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE ESTABLISHING A HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...KEPT
THE FORECAST DRY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT NEXT SUNDAY.
WE WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE ON IDA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HOW IT MAY
INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM FOR MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS BE LESS OF A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER AS IT REMAINS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY...VFR. SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE PRIMARILY N OF THE MASS
PIKE. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z.
TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...VFR. WIND SHIFT TO N 12Z-16Z FROM N TO S.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
TODAY...SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE NEARSHORE
NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A 30 TO 40 KT
SW LLJ APPROACHES. HOWEVER NO SCA ISSUED AS AN INVERSION SHOULD
INHIBIT FAVORABLE MOMENTUM TRANSFER ACROSS THE WATERS.
TONIGHT...SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING
NEARSHORE NORTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT 2 TO 4 FT.
TUESDAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO N DURING THE MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF IDA...IS
EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS HIGH PRESSURE TO GENERATE
STRONG NORTH WINDS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE.
UNDERCUT THE WNA WAVE HEIGHT GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT IS DRIVEN
BY THE GFS WINDS. WITH THE GFS SOLUTION CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER...DO NOT THINK THE WNA OUTPUT IS REALISTIC IN THIS CASE. IF
THIS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SOONER...OR THE OCEAN STORM PASSES FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH...MAY NEED TO CUT BACK ON WINDS AND SEAS EVEN FURTHER.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE
BOS 74 IN 1945
PVD 74 IN 1945
BDL 76 IN 1975
ORH 71 IN 1945
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...STRAUSS
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS
MARINE...BELK/STRAUSS
CLIMATE...
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