124
FXUS61 KBOX 260827
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
427 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY SUNDAY AS THIS LOW DEPARTS
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH
MODERATING TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER. EXPECT WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
CONTINUING TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. RECEIVED REPORTS
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL...SOME OF WHICH MANAGED TO ACCUMULATE A FEW
TENTHS. MID-LEVEL LOW HAS WAS CENTERED OVER BOSTON EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
MAINE SOUTHEAST OF WISCASSET MAINE.
26/00Z GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LOCATION AND
TIMING OF THEIR SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AS SUCH USED A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND FOR THE TIMING IN MOVING THESE LOWS AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION TO THE OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WAS
THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE FIELDS IN THE GFS. THE GFS HAS A
SPURIOUS POCKET OF SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR AT BOTH 925 MB AND 850
MB. AS SUCH IGNORED THE MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS ALREADY DECREASED THIS MORNING...AND
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS END
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO
PREVENT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY...BUT CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
ALOFT AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES. LIMITED MOISTURE AROUND
850 MB SHOULD SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT NOT
DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWERS. MONDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH AT
WORST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
OF MORE CONCERN ARE THE TEMPERATURES. 26/00Z MAV GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S PVD-BDL AND LOW
70S BOS. MEANWHILE WHILE MODEL TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB AND 925 MB
SUPPORT ONLY SUPPORT VALUES OF 65-70. 26/00Z MET GUIDANCE IS
LOWER...AND FAVORED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
* WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING AROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER.
* MUGGY AND WELL ABOVE AVG CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURS.
CONFIDENCE LEVEL/MODEL GUIDANCE...00Z MODEL SUITE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS RUN. THEREFORE HAVE OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST PACKAGE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EJECT OFFSHORE AS
RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE BY MID-WEEK BUT WITH
AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WEST...ANOMALOUS RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE WEEKEND. FOR WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIP WILL OCCUR WED INTO THURS YET MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
TIMING. ALSO HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON ANOMALOUS WARM TEMPS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK....WHICH MAY FLIRT WITH RECORDS.
DETAILS...
TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WAA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL AID IN TEMPS REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON. BESIDES SOME DIURNAL CU A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE NORTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY...INTERESTING DAY SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP WHICH MAY
BARE WATCHING IN LATER FORECASTS. MODELS ALL SHOW A WARM FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WED. EXACT TIMING DIFFERS...REGARDLESS
IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE INTO THE 60S AND WITH THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHING...IT WILL PROVIDE A GOOD SOURCE OF LIFT. SURFACE LI/S
DROP TO -2C WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES RANGING AROUND 20-25
KTS...MOST OF THAT IS IN WITH 0-1 KM. AM CONCERN ABOUT THE LACK OF
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION...HOWEVER APPEARS THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING
THE REGION TO AID IN DEVELOP. ONE CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER AROUND...WHICH WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY. THERE IS ALSO A
MODEST EML LAYER THAT MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP
STORMS ISOLATED. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE DEPICTING AROUND 1500 J/KG
OF MU CAPE. AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS BELIEVE AT LEAST STRONG STORMS
WILL DEVELOP. PWAT VALUES REACH AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO BELIEVE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THIS EVENT BEING STILL 4 DAYS
AWAY...THERE ARE MANY THINGS IN THE MESOSCALE THAT CAN CHANGE.
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
RETURN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWERS
SINCE THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER MAIN ISSUE TO
WATCH IS THE MAX TEMPS...WHICH MAY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
OVERVIEW...
THROUGH 12Z...VFR VISIBILITIES DOMINATE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. VFR CEILINGS NUDGING NORTH THROUGH THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S-N WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE
BY MID AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXPECT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
WEDNESDAY...MODERATED CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE CLOUDS/SCT
SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF WARM FRONT WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR WITH PATCHY FOG DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
MARGINAL GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
SOUTH COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT BECOMING LESS LIKELY
WITH TIME. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT FOR MOST WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. GOOD BOATING WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH
WIND AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE
DAY WITH GUSTS NEARING 25 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD ABOVE 5 FT AND
LINGER INTO THURSDAY. BELIEVE WAVE GUIDANCE WAS TO HIGH SO HAVE
LOWERED THEM A FOOT. OVERALL BELIEVE A SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD.
CLIMATE
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOW AT WORCESTER...34 DEGREES...WOULD BREAK
THE CURRENT RECORD LOW OF 35 DEGREES SET IN 1992. THE FORECAST
LOWS AT PROVIDENCE...HARTFORD...AND BOSTON ARE WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES
OF THE PREVIOUS RECORDS /SEE BELOW/.
HARTFORD - FORECAST LOW - 39 RECORD LOW - 36 (1992)
PROVIDENCE - FORECAST LOW - 38 RECORD LOW - 35 (1972)
BOSTON - FORECAST LOW - 41 RECORD LOW - 39 (1882)
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ232>235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ230-231-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254-255.
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN
CLIMATE...GOULD/DUNTEN
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