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FGUS72 KCAE 291439
ESFCAE
GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
121400-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1038 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008
...SOME DETERIORATION IN THE DROUGHT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
RAINFALL ANALYSIS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN GEORGIA OVER THE
PAST TWO WEEKS ENDING ON MAY 28 INDICATED THAT MUCH OF THE AREA HAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THERE WAS
A NARROW BAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE NORMAL. ISOLATED SPOTS HAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GROWING SEASON IS NOW IS FULL SWING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND
GEORGIA. RAPIDLY GROWING VEGETATION WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE A GREAT
DEMAND ON SOIL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD FURTHER INCREASING DEMANDS ON SOIL
MOISTURE.
THE STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA DROUGHT RESPONSE COMMITTEE CONTINUES
TO DECLARE THE UPSTATE REGION TO BE IN A SEVERE DROUGHT INCLUDING
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER AND LANCASTER COUNTIES. THE SAVANNAH
RIVER BASIN SOUTH TO HAMPTON AND COLLETON AND NORTH TO ORANGEBURG TO
SALUDA COUNTIES AND EAST TO KERSHAW COUNTY ARE IN A MODERATE DROUGHT.
THE REST OF THE STATE WAS DESIGNATED TO BE IN AN INCIPIENT DROUGHT.
FOR A MAP OF THE DROUGHT AREA IN SOUTH CAROLINA AND FOR OTHER DROUGHT
INFORMATION GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
WWW.DNR.SC.GOV/CLIMATE/SCO ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS.
... LOCAL CLIMATE TABLE...
PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1 THROUGH MAY 28 2008
STATION PRECIPITATION DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL PERCENT OF NORMAL
COLUMBIA SC 15.17 INCHES MINUS 3.68 INCHES 80 PERCENT
AUGUSTA GA 16.88 INCHES MINUS 1.99 INCHES 89 PERCENT
PRECIPITATION FROM MAY 1 THROUGH MAY 28 2008
COLUMBIA SC 1.78 INCHES MINUS 1.00 INCHES 64 PERCENT
AUGUSTA GA 2.46 INCHES MINUS 0.25 INCHES 91 PERCENT
... SOIL MOISTURE...
SOIL MOISTURE AS MEASURED BY THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX
SHOWED SOME DETERIORATION IN SOIL MOISTURE IN MOST AREAS...BUT THIS
DETERIORATION HAS BEEN SLOW IN NATURE SO FAR. THE NUMBERS ARE
CALCULATED FOR DATA THROUGH MAY 24 ARE AS FOLLOWS:
AREA PDSI CATEGORY CHANGE
NC SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 3.30 SEVERE DROUGHT BETTER
NE SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 1.95 DRY SIDE OF NORMAL LTL CHG
WC SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 2.66 MODERATE DROUGHT WORSE
C SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 0.75 NORMAL BETTER
S SOUTH CAROLINA MINUS 0.91 NORMAL LTL CHG
NE GEORGIA MINUS 1.25 DRY SIDE OF NORMAL WORSE
EC GEORGIA MINUS 1.18 DRY SIDE OF NORMAL WORSE
LEGEND A READING:
BETWEEN PLUS 1. 00 AND PLUS 1. 99 MOIST SIDE OF NORMAL
BETWEEN PLUS 0. 99 AND MINUS 0. 99 NORMAL
BETWEEN MINUS 1. 00 AND MINUS 1. 99 DRY SIDE OF NORMAL
BETWEEN MINUS 2. 00 AND MINUS 2. 99 MODERATE DROUGHT
BETWEEN MINUS 3. 00 AND MINUS 3. 99 SEVERE DROUGHT
LESS THAN MINUS 4. 00 EXTREME DROUGHT
THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT WHERE THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY
INDEX WILL BE REPORTED. IN THE FUTURE THE ONLY DROUGHT MEASURE
REPORTED WILL BE FROM THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR. THE DROUGHT MONITOR
USES SEVERAL MEASURES OF DROUGHT INCLUDING THE PALMER DROUGHT
SEVERITY INDEX. THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX DATA CAN BE FOUND
ON THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/ANALYSIS_MONITORING/CDUS/PALMER_
DROUGHT ALL IN LOWER CASE LETTERS.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON MAY 27 SHOWS:
D3...EXTREME DROUGHT...CONTINUING TO COVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF
SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTEND INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH THE SOUTHERN
BORDER FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS SOUTHERN ABBEVILLE COUNTY IN
SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY AND NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHEAST YORK COUNTY.
D2...SEVERE DROUGHT...WAS IN A NARROW STRIP SOUTH OF THE D3 AREA
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS
SOUTHERN MCCORMICK COUNTY SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NEWBERRY COUNTY AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST CHESTERFIELD
COUNTY.
D1...MODERATE DROUGHT...COVERED MUCH OF SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INTO EAST CENTRAL AND PART OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST OF
SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA THERE WAS A NARROW STRIP ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS WEST ALLENDALE COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST TO
CENTRAL HAMPTON COUNTY AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL COLLETON AND CENTRAL
DORCHESTER COUNTIES. FROM THERE THE LINE MOVED NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST LEXINGTON COUNTY AND THEN NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST MARLBORO
COUNTY.
D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...COVERED THE REST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTH OF THE D1 AREA. NO AREAS IN SOUTH
CAROLINA WERE CONSIDERED TO HAVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE.
...RIVER AND STREAMFLOW...
OVER THE PAST 14 DAYS ENDING ON MAY 27 2008 RECORD LOW FLOW WAS
RECORDED ON THE BROAD...WATEREE AND THE CONGAREE RIVERS...SEVERE
HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT. FLOWS IN THE 6 TO 9 PERCENTILE RANGE...MODERATE
HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT...WERE FOUND ON THE LYNCH AND BLACK CREEK. FLOWS
IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENTILE RANGE...BELOW NORMAL FLOW...WERE FOUND ON
THE EDISTO...PEE DEE AND SAVANNAH RIVERS.
A SNAPSHOT OF 34 RANKED GAGES IN SOUTH CAROLINA ON THE MORNING OF
MAY 28 2008 SHOWED THAT 15 PERCENT WERE REPORTING RECORD LOW
FLOW...47 PERCENT WERE REPORTING FLOW IN THE LESS THAN 10 PERCENTILE
RANGE...29 PERCENT WERE REPORTING FLOW IN THE 10 TO 24 PERCENTILE
RANGE. ONLY 9 PERCENT OF THE GAGES WERE REPORTING FLOWS IN THE 25 TO
90 PERCENTILE RANGE.
DATA PROVIDED BY THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.
...RESERVOIR LEVELS...
AS OF MAY 28...AREA RESERVOIRS WERE REPORTING STEADY TO FALLING
LEVELS. ONLY LAKE WATEREE HAD A RISE SINCE MAY 1. LAKES THURMOND...
MARION AND GREENWOOD SHOWED FALLING LEVELS SINCE MAY 1. LAKE MURRAY
REPORTED LITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH. LAKES
THURMOND AND RUSSELL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LAKE RUSSELL WAS ABOUT 0.7 FEET BELOW NORMAL AND LAKE THURMOND
7.8 FEET BELOW NORMAL.
DATA PROVIDED BY THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY AND THE U.S.
ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS.
...CLIMATE OUTLOOK...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR ALL BUT FRIDAY AND MONDAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF HEAVY RAIN IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR.
THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JUNE 3 TO JUNE 7 2008 CALLS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM JUNE 5 TO JUNE 11 2008 CALLS FOR
EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.
THE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2008 ALSO CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...
BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA.
THE 3 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR JUNE...JULY AND AUGUST 2008 CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A 33 PERCENT
CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST THIRD OF SOUTH CAROLINA.
...OUTLOOK FOR THE DROUGHT...
SHORT AND LONG TERM OUTLOOKS ARE INCONCLUSIVE CONCERNING THE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPIATION EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH AUGUST. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHWEST SOUTH SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE NEXT 3
MONTHS. HOWEVER STREAMFLOWS STILL INDICATE GREAT STRESS ON GROUND
WATER SYSTEMS. THIS CONDITION WILL ONLY IMPROVE WITH PROLONGED
PERIODS OF RAIN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE EVAPORATION
RATES ACROSS THE AREA RELIEVING SOME STRESS ON SOIL MOISTURE AND
GROUND WATER SYSTEMS.
AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SUMMER. THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT OR DETERIORATION IN THE
DROUGHT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY JUNE 12 2008
UNDER THE NEW PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST OF CAEDGTCAE. AFTER JUNE 12
2008...THESE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON A MONTHLY BASIS AS LONG A
DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST AND UPDATED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS.
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