143  
FNUS72 KGSP 252114  
FWSGSP  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR PICKNEY BRANCH WILDFIRE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC  
514 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1700 EDT ON MARCH 25.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND  
PUSH A BAND OF MOISTURE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND  
SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN BY THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE  
OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING. A CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS  
LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG LATE.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-6000 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 800-2400 FT  
AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT (46800-75400  
KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR TO FAIR  
(7000-23700 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
LVORI...............3.  
ADI.................46...DECREASING TO 9 UNTIL EARLY MORNING...THEN  
INCREASING TO 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT...DECREASING TO  
9 LATE.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.41 INCHES.  
CEILING (FT)........3500...DECREASING TO 500.0.  
VISIBILITY (SM).....7...DECREASING TO 5 LATE.  
SFC PRESSURE (IN)...28.48.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........75 75 78 81 85 88 91 93 96 96 97 97  
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............72 70 68 65 64 62 61 60 60 59 58 57  
DEWPOINT........52 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 54 54 54 54  
RH..............50 54 59 65 69 73 75 78 80 83 86 90  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 15 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...6.0 5.9 5.7 4.1 2.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 15 15 13 12 10 13 16 18 17 14 12  
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 5 5  
ADI.............46 10 10 8 8 7 8 11 21 19 9 8  
VRATE KT-FT/100074 75 74 47 24 7 11 17 23 21 17 13  
CEILING (HFT)...45 45 45 45 45 45 35 27 18 20 6.0 5.0  
VISIBILITY (SM).10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 5  
SFC PRES (IN)...851 851 851 851 852 853 852 851 851 850 849 848  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE  
MORNING. SHOWERS LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN A  
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71.  
MIN HUMIDITY........59 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3800-4800 FT  
AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH...INCREASING TO SOUTH 17  
TO 24 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (8600-47600 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING  
TO EXCELLENT (71900 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
MORNING.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................9...INCREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN  
INCREASING FURTHER TO 44 THEN 65...DECREASING TO 54.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.34 INCHES.  
CEILING (FT)........600.0...DECREASING TO 500.0 EARLY IN THE  
MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 600.0 IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO  
500.0 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO  
1700...INCREASING TO 2400 LATE.  
VISIBILITY (SM).....2.00...INCREASING TO 5 LATE IN THE  
MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
SFC PRESSURE (IN)...28.44.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........97 96 96 95 95 94 93 93 92 90 87 85  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC CHC  
TEMP............56 56 57 60 63 65 67 69 70 70 70 70  
DEWPOINT........54 53 53 54 54 54 55 55 55 56 56 56  
RH..............92 88 87 80 73 69 65 62 60 59 60 61  
20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.3 1.3 2.1 2.9 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 8 8 13 18 23 24 23 22 21 18 17  
LVORI...........6 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
ADI.............6 12 12 25 44 62 67 66 65 62 55 52  
VRATE KT-FT/100010 9 9 23 48 77 86 88 88 83 78 72  
CEILING (HFT)...6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 17 17 24  
VISIBILITY (SM).3 3 2.0 2.0 2.0 5 5 4 4  
SFC PRES (IN)...848 849 849 849 850 850 850 850 850 848 846 844  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY  
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE  
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300-4600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 500-2300 FT  
AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO EXCELLENT (23000-64900  
KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO POOR (3100 KNOT-FT)  
LATE IN THE EVENING.  
LVORI...............4.  
ADI.................48...DECREASING TO 7.  
STABILITY CLASS.....5.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17 INCHES.  
CEILING (FT)........2400...INCREASING TO 3000 EARLY IN THE  
EVENING...THEN DECREASING TO 1700 LATE IN THE  
EVENING...DECREASING TO 1000 AFTER  
MIDNIGHT...DECREASING TO 300.0.  
VISIBILITY (SM).....MISSING.  
SFC PRESSURE (IN)...28.43.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........82 80 85 85 86 86 87 89 90 91 92 93  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RN  
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH  
TEMP............69 68 68 66 64 62 61 59 58 58 58 57  
DEWPOINT........56 56 55 55 55 55 55 55 54 55 55 55  
RH..............62 65 63 68 72 77 81 84 86 89 90 93  
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.6 4.5 4.4 3.3 2.3 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S SE SE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 7 7 7 7  
LVORI...........1 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6  
ADI.............48 10 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/100065 59 53 37 23 11 8 5 3 5 6 7  
CEILING (HFT)...24 24 30 30 40 17 17 10 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0  
VISIBILITY (SM).  
SFC PRES (IN)...844 844 844 845 847 848 847 847 846 845 844 843  
 

 
FORECASTER...DANNY GANT  
REQUESTED BY...BOB LITTLE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 1704926.0/GSP  
 
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