026  
FNUS72 KILM 201649  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR REEDY MEADOW...NORTH CAROLINA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1149 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EST ON FEBRUARY 20.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATING OFFSHORE, WILL DRAW WARM AIR  
INTO THE REGION MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BEFORE A COLD FRONT  
BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS  
WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...HIGH.  
   
THIS AFTERNOON
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.  
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
LATE.  
MAX MIXING HGT......2400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 17 MPH  
MAX VENT RATE.......34500 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........10.  
MAX ADI.............39.  
 
TIME (EST) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........45 43 42 41 40 39  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............76 77 78 79 78 76  
RH..............73 64 61 60 61 64  
CHC PCPN (%)....10 0 0 0 0 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 4 3  
20 FT WIND GUST. 6 6  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 13 14 15  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..21 23 29 32 35 32  
STABILITY.......D D D D D C  
LVORI...........3 2 2 2 1 1  
ADI.............21 22 26 28 30 39  
APARNT TMP (F)..76 77 78 79 78 76  
SFC PRES (IN)...037 035 035 035 035 035  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING. AREAS OF  
FOG LATE.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
MIN MIXING HGT......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 16 MPH, DECREASING TO 0 TO 6 MPH IN  
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
MIN VENT RATE.......0 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........10.  
MIN ADI.............0.  
 
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........38 37 38 40 42 43 45 47 50 56 60 63  
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY ARS ARS  
WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............73 70 68 66 65 64 64 64 63 63 62 61  
RH..............69 76 81 86 89 91 91 91 92 94 97 100  
CHC PCPN (%)....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.16 15 10 6 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 0  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..28 22 12 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
STABILITY.......F F F F F F F F F F F F  
LVORI...........3 4 4 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10  
ADI.............7 7 5 3 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1  
APARNT TMP (F)..73 70 68 66 65 64 64 64 63 63 62 61  
SFC PRES (IN)...035 039 039 039 039 039 039 039 039 039 039 039  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG  
EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN PATCHY FOG EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
MAX MIXING HGT......3400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH, BECOMING NORTH EARLY IN THE  
MORNING, THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY  
IN THE MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 9 TO 17 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MAX LVORI...........10.  
MAX ADI.............42.  
 
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........64 66 66 56 44 36  
WEATHER COV.....AREAS PATCHY  
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............61 65 71 77 80 79  
RH..............100 93 82 67 59 60  
CHC PCPN (%)....0 0 0 0 0 0  
20 FT WIND......S 0 S 1 S 3 S 4 S 4 S 2  
20 FT WIND GUST. 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 500 1100 2300 3400 3400  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 0 S 5 S 16 SW 16 SW 13 SW 9  
LVORI...........10 6 3 3 1 1  
ADI.............1 4 23 34 32 36  
 

 
 
FORECASTER...COLBY  
REQUESTED BY...MIKE HINSON  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1802212.0/ILM  
.EMAIL MICHAEL.HINSON@NCAGR  
 
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