489  
FNUS72 KILM 221458  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK RIVER...TNC  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
1058 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON AUGUST 22.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING STORMS OVER THE  
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BRING AN EARLY FALL FEEL FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. BREEZY  
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS A TROPICAL  
LOW PASSES OFFSHORE AND INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTH 5-11 MPH. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX MIXING HGT......5400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.  
MAX VENT RATE.......51404 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........10.  
MAX ADI.............44.  
 
TIME (EDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........36 59 54 57 57 56  
WEATHER COV.....ISO SCT ISO ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO SCT ISO ISO ISO  
TEMP............88 89 90 90 90 89  
RH..............67 63 61 61 62 64  
CHC PCPN (%)....20 30 20 10 20 20  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 4 5 4 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.5 4.8 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.0  
TRANS WND DIR...W SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANS WND SPD...6 6 7 8 9 10  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..26 28 34 43 50 51  
STABILITY.......C C D D D C  
LVORI...........2 2 2 2 1 1  
ADI.............23 26 22 26 31 44  
APARNT TMP (F)..98 100 100 101 100 99  
SFC PRES (IN)...004 004 994 994 994 994  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT), THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING,  
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE  
EVENING.  
MIN MIXING HGT......200 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH.  
MIN VENT RATE.......1150 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........8.  
MIN ADI.............2.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........64 41 21 42 52 48 17 15 34 19 13 17  
WEATHER COV.....ISO ISO  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW  
TSTM COV........ISO ISO  
TEMP............87 85 82 81 80 79 78 78 77 76 76 76  
RH..............68 73 77 81 84 86 87 88 90 91 92 94  
CHC PCPN (%)....20 20 10 10 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANS WND DIR...SW SW S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANS WND SPD...9 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..31 12 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
STABILITY.......C E E E E E E E E E E F  
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 8  
ADI.............35 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2  
APARNT TMP (F)..96 93 89 86 84 83 78 78 77 76 76 76  
SFC PRES (IN)...994 994 992 992 992 992 992 992 988 988 988 988  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN  
THE MORNING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC  
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MAX MIXING HGT......5700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH.  
MAX VENT RATE.......74060 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........8.  
MAX ADI.............56.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........7 27 37 48 58 61  
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ISOLTD SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE  
TEMP............75 77 82 87 89 90  
RH..............96 93 77 66 62 61  
CHC PCPN (%)....20 30 30 30 40 40  
20 FT WIND......SW 5 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6  
20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 300 2100 4200 5600 5400  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 5 SW 6 SW 8 SW 10 SW 12 SW 14  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 4 4  
VR MPH-FT*1000..0 1 17 43 64 74  
STABILITY.......F C C D D C  
LVORI...........8 6 3 3 1 1  
ADI.............2 5 22 28 38 56  
APARNT TMP (F)..75 77 89 96 99 100  
SFC PRES (IN)...29.88 29.85 29.85 29.85 29.78 29.78  
 

 
FORECASTER...COLBY  
REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1714695.0/ILM  
.EMAIL ACARL@TNC.ORG  
 
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