119  
FNUS72 KILM 261257  
FWSILM  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR WESTERN, CAISON, WESLEY...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC  
857 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2017  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON JUNE 26.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN SPREADING  
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST.  
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATE ON TUESDAY  
FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR THROUGH MID  
WEEK. SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND.  
 
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE  
 
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...MODERATE  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.  
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH BECOMING EAST.  
MAX MIXING HGT......5500 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH, INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 12  
TO 20 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY  
AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......53359 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........8.  
MAX ADI.............39.  
 
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........76 79 72 66 59 54 49 44  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............77 79 81 82 83 84 85 85  
RH..............66 59 53 49 47 46 46 47  
CHC PCPN (%)....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE E E E E  
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5  
TRANS WND DIR...NE NE NE NE NE NE NE NE  
TRANS WND SPD...17 16 14 12 9 8 7 5  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VR MPH-FT*1000..39 50 53 53 53 45 37 28  
STABILITY.......D D D D D D C C  
LVORI...........3 1 1 1 2 2 2 2  
ADI.............35 39 38 34 29 26 30 20  
APARNT TMP (F)..77 81 82 83 84 85 85 85  
SFC PRES (IN)...003 003 003 003 999 999 999 999  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.  
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
MIN MIXING HGT......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 5 MPH, BECOMING WEST 2 TO 3 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIN VENT RATE.......459 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........8.  
MIN ADI.............1.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........40 35 30 26 22 19 22 26 30 30 30 29  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............83 81 79 76 74 73 71 70 68 67 66 66  
RH..............52 57 64 71 79 85 90 93 96 100 100 100  
CHC PCPN (%)....10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE SE S SW SW W W NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANS WND DIR...E SE S S S S S SW SW SW W NW  
TRANS WND SPD...5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5  
VR MPH-FT*1000..15 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1  
STABILITY.......B G G G G G G G G G G G  
LVORI...........2 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8  
ADI.............20 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
APARNT TMP (F)..84 83 79 76 74 73 71 70 68 67 66 66  
SFC PRES (IN)...999 999 998 998 998 998 998 998 995 995 995 995  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
MAX MIXING HGT......5400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 3 MPH, INCREASING TO 5 TO 12 MPH  
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MAX VENT RATE.......35650 MPH-FT.  
MAX LVORI...........7.  
MAX ADI.............42.  
 
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........33 35 28 37 58 61  
WEATHER COV..... ISOLTD ISOLTD  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........  
TEMP............67 72 79 84 86 86  
RH..............100 83 65 53 49 48  
CHC PCPN (%)....10 10 10 10 20 20  
20 FT WIND......NW 3 N 3 N 4 N 3 E 2 E 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 2800 4200 4600 5100  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 2 N 3 N 10 N 8 N 5 N 6  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 4 5 5  
VR MPH-FT*1000..1 1 29 34 23 31  
STABILITY.......G B B B C C  
LVORI...........7 5 1 1 2 2  
ADI.............1 4 36 40 18 24  
APARNT TMP (F)..67 72 81 86 87 88  
SFC PRES (IN)...29.95 29.99 29.99 29.99 29.95 29.95  
 

 
FORECASTER...NEUHERZ  
REQUESTED BY...ANGIE CARL  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1711624.0/ILM  
.EMAIL ACARL@TNC.ORG  
 
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