815
FNUS72 KILM 191029
FWSILM
SPOT FORECAST FOR WACCAMAW RX...U.S. FISH & WILDLIFE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
629 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON APRIL 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...OR IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS ABOUT THIS FORECAST...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WILMINGTON AT 910-762-1374.
DISCUSSION
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO POOR VENT RATES TODAY. THERE
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A SEA BREEZE TODAY AS THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A STALLED FRONT IN THE AREA. FOR THIS
REASON, NOT EXPECTING A LARGE INCREASE IN GUSTINESS LIKE WITH A
TRADITIONAL SEA BREEZE. OTHERWISE, INLAND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA AND
STALLS OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN SAT AFTN.
WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.
FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT IS LOW.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
8 TO 14 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MAX VENT RATE.......POOR (22114 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........4.
MAX ADI.............29.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........39 29 25 32 39 46 46 45 45
WEATHER COV..... SCH CHC CHC SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH CHC CHC SCH
TEMP............70 75 79 80 81 80 80 79 78
RH..............81 70 64 61 60 61 62 64 66
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SE E SE SE SE SE S S
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST.5 6 6 8 10 12 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.0 1.8 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.W NW SE SE SE S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 7 8 9 9 13 13 14 14
STABILITY.......A A A A B B B B B
LVORI...........4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
ADI.............9 9 19 29 20 28 25 24 24
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 7 15 22 16 22 19 18 19
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...999 999 001 001 001 997 997 997 994
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MAX HUMIDITY........98 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN MIXING HGT......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIN VENT RATE.......POOR (4516 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........6.
MIN ADI.............5.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........41 38 34 38 41 44 46 48 49 48 47 46
WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
TEMP............78 76 73 71 70 69 68 68 67 67 66 66
RH..............67 69 77 82 85 87 88 89 92 93 93 95
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.11 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 10 12 12 14 14 14 15 14 14 13
STABILITY.......B F F F E E E E E E E E
LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
ADI.............21 5 5 5 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8
HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.16 9 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
SFC PRES (IN)...994 994 995 995 995 996 996 996 994 994 994 995
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX MIXING HGT......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 10
TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX VENT RATE.......GOOD (58511 MPH-FT).
MAX LVORI...........7.
MAX ADI.............71.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........43 36 29 37 62 64
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
TEMP............66 67 76 81 83 82
RH..............96 93 71 60 58 59
20 FT WIND......SW 4 W 3 W 4 NW 5 NW 6 NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.7 5 7 8 9 8
MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 2100 3900 4200 3000
TRANSPORT WIND..W 12 W 10 W 13 W 14 W 14 N 12
STABILITY.......E A A A C C
LVORI...........6 5 3 1 1 1
ADI.............8 10 35 69 53 37
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3
VRATE MPH-FT/1K.5 5 27 54 59 34
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR POOR
SFC PRES (IN)...29.95 29.96 29.96 29.95 29.91 29.91
FORECASTER...WARNER
REQUESTED BY...ADAM MCCULLOUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411375.0/ILM
.DELDT 04/19/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ADAM_MCCULLOUGH@FWS.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page