857  
FXUS62 KCAE 260604  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
204 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT OUR REGION NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING  
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, AT TIMES.  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
EARLY THIS MORNING: SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW A  
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE AND RAINFALL MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE  
GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER  
TONIGHT AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVECTION TO OUR WEST  
SHIFTS EASTWARD SLOWLY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE  
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH  
BULK OF RAINFALL STAYING WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE.  
MORNING LOWS MODERATED BY SOME CLOUD COVER AND A LOW-LEVEL JET  
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S.  
 
TODAY: THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN  
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND  
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE  
DAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL  
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES, WITH CHANCE POPS WARRANTED  
IN THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST, MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOWER FOR  
POPS. CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO LIMIT HIGHS SOMEWHAT, BUT WITH  
GOOD WARM ADVECTION ON SOUTHERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES STILL  
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
FRONT TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY MONDAY. NO UPPER TRIGGER MONDAY  
BUT DIURNAL HEATING, ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG OLD FRONT OR  
SEA BREEZE, COULD PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAYBE AN  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ACTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTED BY MODELS WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS THAT  
COULD AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
UPPER DISTURBANCE PROGGED TO ROLL THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME, WITH  
AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE BOUNDAY. PROGGED INSTABILITY VALUES  
GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE. BOTH GFS AND EC INDICATE SOME UPPER  
RIDGING OVER THE SE CONUS WEDNESDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INTO  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL IN OUR  
VICINITY, WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WEDGE-LIKE REGIME TO THE NORTH OF IT.  
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE FRONT/WEAK WEDGE MAY SET UP, WHICH  
PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR WED/THU. THE FRONT WOULD PRESUMABLY  
EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM,  
THAT GFS AND EC GENERALLY BRING INTO OUR REGION THU NT/FRI TIME  
FRAME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE OF MODEL TIMING AND POSITION OF CLOSED  
UPPER SYSTEMS CAN BE LIMITED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SO, SOME  
LIMITED CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFICS MID TO LATE WEEK. GENERALLY USED A  
MODEL BLEND, WHICH PROVIDES MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS AT  
TIMES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS  
GENERALLY, THOUGH ANY WEAK WEDGINESS COULD LIMIT MAX TEMPS ON A  
DAY OR TWO MID WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE FA, MAINLY NORTH, IF IT  
SETS UP.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING MOISTURE INTO  
THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STATES. ALL  
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR, DROPPING  
CEILINGS DOWN TO LOW END VFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, A FEW SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE WILL BE  
LIMITED TO WEST OF TAF SITES. WINDS OVERNIGHT LIGHT OUT OF THE  
SOUTH, THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE  
EACH MORNING AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE  
TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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