220  
FXUS62 KCAE 151128  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
728 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STRETCHED NEAR OUR  
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY, PROVIDING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THAT AREA.  
OTHERWISE, FAIR AND WARM WITH DRIER AIR AND UPPER RIDGING  
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. AN UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING  
MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING  
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
TODAY: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL LIFT  
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATES WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE  
WESTERN OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA. PWAT VALUES REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH  
VALUES AS LOW AS 1 INCH. THE DRY AIR, COMBINED WITH A MID-LEVEL  
CAPPING INVERSION, SHOULD HELP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. WILL  
CONTINUE TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER FAR EASTERN  
MIDLANDS IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND  
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH  
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.  
 
TONIGHT: ISOLATED RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN CWA WILL DISSIPATE  
BY SUNSET. ANOTHER RELATIVELY DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA, WITH SKIES  
MOSTLY CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF PATCHY FOG  
AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE  
LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WEAK UPPER  
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE FROM  
THE WEST AND SOUTH, PROVIDING CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA, SLIGHT  
CHANCE ELSEWHERE, FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST FRI/SAT.  
CONTINUED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE EXPECTED. TROUGH AXIS  
TO MOVE INTO AND SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION SAT NT/SUN.  
UPPER TROUGH TO DIG BACK INTO THE E CONUS EARLY TO MID WEEK.  
EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR FORECAST  
PERIOD EXCEPT PATCHY MORNING FOG AT AGS BETWEEN 12Z-13Z.  
 
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE  
COASTAL PLAIN, SO TAF SITES REMAIN DRY. EXPECT SCATTERED VFR  
CUMULUS DECK TO DEVELOP WITH SURFACE HEATING BY LATE MORNING.  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND PICK UP WITH A PREVAILING  
DIRECTION FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE MAY BE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND  
EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF  
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page