342
FXUS62 KCAE 091524
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1024 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW WILL REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OFF THE COAST LATE THIS MORNING. SHORT
WAVE OVER WRN TN MOVING EAST TO CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS ALREADY OVER THE AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT MOST NOTABLE ACROSS
TH3 EASTERN HALF OF SC. KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS TODAY. COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG S/W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THEN TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME NW TONIGHT THROUGH WED
NIGHT. SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY ALONG THE NC/VA COAST TONIGHT
AND MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA. EXPECT THE PCPN TO TAPER OFF FROM
SW TO NE TONIGHT. MAIN ISSUE FOR WED WILL BE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE THE PLAINS. THE STRONG GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH STRONG CAA DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WED WILL
PRODUCE BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS ACRS THE AREA. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA...BUT BASED ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS FOR WED...A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED. WINDS
WILL BE BRISK FROM THE WEST AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
THE BRISK WINDS COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE A
SCENARIO FOR SOME REPORTS OF UPROOTED TREES. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
NUMBERS VERY CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR WED WITH GOOD CAA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED ON THURSDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND APPROACHING THE AREA
BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM LEAVES MANY QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED AS
MODELS HAVE YET TO BE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HAVE DIFFICULT TIME IN NARROWING DOWN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI/FRI NIGHT. 00Z
ECMWF FARTHER NWD WITH SYSTEM AND 00Z GFS FARTHER SWD WITH SYSTEM.
WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY...HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT FORECAST FRI
THROUGH SAT WITH MENTION OF RAIN/SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
PROGRESS OF SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRI/SAT. BY LATER SAT/SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN MAINLY AFFECTING
CAE/CUB/OGB LATE THIS MORNING. RAIN ALSO MOVING INTO THE TAF SITES
FROM THE WEST BETWEEN BY 18Z AND 20Z. VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AS THE RAIN COMES IN. SYSTEM BEGINS PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA
AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20 KNOTS LIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CROSSING THE
REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...GUSTS ABOVE 30
KNOTS POSSIBLE. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...10
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