797
FXUS62 KCAE 261520
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1120 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2024
SYNOPSIS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS TODAY AS
A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING WEST OF THE AREA LEADING TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN CSRA AND WESTERN MIDLANDS.
FAIR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING DOWN THE EAST COAST TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DRY MID-LEVELS
AND A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES TODAY IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MIDLANDS. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT, IF
MEASURABLE AT ALL. WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WE WILL
SEE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING. IT WILL WARM UP
QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL HANG IN LONGER.
ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES DUE
TO THE GREATER INSOLATION.
RIDGING ALOFT AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SET UP A
SIMILAR SITUATION TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND SPREADING INTO CENTRAL SC AND THE CSRA. A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT POINTS TO STRATUS FAVORED OVER
FOG. WITH OVERCAST OR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECT MILD TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST. THIS HIGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO FAIR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A SUBTLE BOUNDARY
WORKING ITS WAY AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH, WHICH CAN MAINLY BE
SEEN IN BRIEF LOWERING OF PWATS BEHIND IT. THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING SHOWERS NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THAT SAID, THE EURO
AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A LOW CHANCE (~10-20%) FOR
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS, MAINLY IN THE CSRA. IN
CONTRAST, THE NBM IS SHOWING 0% CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WOULD NEED TO BE SOME SORT OF
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO GET SHOWERS IN
THE AREA, WHICH I'M NOT CONFIDENT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE.
THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS BELOW 10%.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE TO
START THE WORK WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE AS
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION AROUND MIDWEEK, BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. DESPITE THE POTENTIAL SHOWERS, WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. A DEEPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
WHICH LOOKS TO GIVE US A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID, IT'S STILL
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER SIDE STILL.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO MID-DAY, WE WILL SEE CEILINGS LIFT
WITH SITES RETURNING TO VFR BY 18Z. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD FAVOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS
TONIGHT WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND PUSHES INTO
THE TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
CEILING RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY MORNING. IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT AS LIKELY GIVEN THE 25 KT LLJ WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING BUT COULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH 18Z. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE EASTERLY FROM 5 TO 10 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY ON.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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