317  
FXUS62 KCAE 201813  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
213 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY AIR IN  
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH INCREASING  
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN  
SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING  
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THIS AFTERNOON: PICTURE PERFECT SPRING AFTERNOON UNFOLDING WITH  
SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 60S EN ROUTE TO  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
TONIGHT: FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED UNDER INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS HAVE  
SUBSIDED AND EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM MOST  
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO  
CALM WINDS WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD PROVIDE EXCELLENT  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND THEREFORE WENT CLOSE TO OR  
BELOW THE COOLER GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER  
40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID 30S IN OUTLYING  
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS BUT FROST NOT A  
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN AS AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND T-TD DEPRESSIONS  
LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE 5 DEGREES OR MORE. UPDATED HWO TO  
INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN NORTHERN MIDLANDS ONLY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AFFECTING THE REGION ON  
SATURDAY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY AIRMASS WILL  
STILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS  
WILL MODERATE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. MODEL CONSENSUS  
HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO  
AROUND 50 SOUTH.  
 
A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SPREAD  
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. BY AFTERNOON PWAT WILL RANGE FROM  
AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS THE CSRA TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH OVER THE PEE  
DEE REGION. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO  
THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES  
INCREASING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES MONDAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST  
AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE  
OVER GA/AL ON MONDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND.  
A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES  
TO THE COAST. INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW, SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED  
THUNDER. MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1.5 TO 2.5  
INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS (AND UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGHS) CROSSING THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR LOW. DAYTIME  
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL PREVENT ANY  
CLOUD CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING SATURDAY EARLY  
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED FROM THE EARLIER GUSTS AND AS  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS LATE  
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE FOG  
CONCERNS TONIGHT.  
   
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
 
 
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO POSSIBLE STRATUS, AND POSSIBLY  
LOCALIZED FOG AT FOG PRONE LOCATIONS, EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.  
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.  
SHOWER CHANCES AND RESTRICTIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SC Page
The Nexlab GA Page Main Text Page