115  
FXUS62 KCAE 240245  
AFDCAE  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1045 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2017  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT HAVE  
MOVED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A DRY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING COOLER  
TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A  
WARMING TREND THROUGH LATE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL  
APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. IR SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE OVERTAKEN THE FORECAST  
AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR. WITH  
THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE AREA THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN  
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FOR THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES  
WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO CONTINUE  
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPSTATE ALREADY  
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S POISED TO ENTER THE AREA EXPECT  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE WESTERN  
MIDLANDS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE MAIN COLD FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY  
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL STILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AS  
THE COLDEST AIR REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD  
FRONT. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH BUFKIT WIND  
PROFILES SUGGESTING GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, UNDER LAKE WIND ADVISORY  
CRITERIA. GUSTS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE REINFORCING  
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHS IN  
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY  
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW  
40S. ALTHOUGH, A MODERATE 15 KT LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) WILL HINDER  
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN SOME OF OUR AREA'S COOLER SPOTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER  
THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE BRINGING WARMING  
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. A DEEP  
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHEAST PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON  
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY  
WEATHER RETURN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO CROSS THE TERMINALS WITH CONVECTION  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALREADY EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. DRIER AIR HAS  
BEGUN MOVING INTO THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD  
RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THROUGH  
THE PERIOD AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 17 KNOTS  
BETWEEN 16Z AND 22Z. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOG  
IS NOT EXPECTED.  
 
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
GA...NONE.  
SC...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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