119
FXUS62 KCAE 241046
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
SYNOPSIS
THE PRESSURE RIDGE IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL BE ALONG THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FURTHER DRYING HAS OCCURRED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IT WILL BE A
DRY AND BREEZY DAY. WE ARE GETTING OFF TO A RELATIVELY WARM START
BECAUSE OF MIXING. USED THE WARMER TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TODAY. THE
NAM BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TOOL SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE DRY PRESSURE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR MASS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 40S TONIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COOL BECAUSE OF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REMAINS MAINLY TO THE
NORTH BUT THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT A LITTLE STRONGER COMPARED TO
THE GFS. THE ECMWF ALSO DISPLAYS THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
IT SHOULD BE DRY TO START SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. EXPECT DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COVERAGE LIMITED BY
THE UPPER RIDGING. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS.
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. WILL MENTION LLWS UNTIL 14Z DUE WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 KTS
AROUND 2000 FT AGL. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z SATURDAY TO LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 TO
25 PERCENT RANGE. WIND APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING.
EXPECT GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. FUEL MOISTURE IS HIGH REDUCING THE FIRE
THREAT.
CLIMATE
MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S.
COLUMBIA METRO AIRPORT RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH...45 SET IN 1967
AUGUSTA BUSH FIELD RECORD LOW FOR MAY 25TH.......43 SET IN 1951
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
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